{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72e2985e-5e8d-4696-ab91-45f21c2cd5c8", "symbol": "CAAP", "name": "Corporacion America Airports", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 54.765, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.86, "architecture_energy": 22.979, "architecture_maturity": 22.98, "architecture_confidence": 90.726, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.94, "rotation_up": 20.05, "upward_expansion": 4.14, "deceleration": 45.03, "rotation_down": 47.23, "downward_expansion": 75.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.224667, 25.370182, 25.442048, 25.591914 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 25.08, "trend_reference": 26.050333, "distance_from_trend": -0.037248, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.520577, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.284798, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.153057, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.13218, "excess_performance": -0.257805, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037248, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007594, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.284798, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0855, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081531, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055686, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.13218, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.989343, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 855907, "relative_activity": 0.802241, "balance": 0.989343, "dry_up": 0.795831, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074715, "annualized_volatility": 0.321271, "from_high_reference": -0.177705, "from_low_reference": 0.4447 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.050333, "fair_value_reference": 19.520577, "structural_low": 23.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.007092, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": 0.020551, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.194595, "worst_return": -0.06184, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.122164, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.108058, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.414444, "worst_return": -0.043771, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.015143, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.016364, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.35, "worst_return": -0.077465, "sufficient": true 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.172678, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067957, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052217, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.106648, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.240657, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09456, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.010125, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090611, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010651, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 14.42, "volume": 1104394, "typical_volume": 651997.95, "trend": 11.103667, "fair_value": 6.589744, "relative_strength": 37.456787, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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"modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.336561, "energy": 25.430191, "activity_lines": [ 25.156, 25.523091, 25.450238, 25.747333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.17, "volume": 780190, "typical_volume": 1120524.8, "trend": 26.141, "fair_value": 19.370064, "relative_strength": -3.44217, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.169726, "energy": 27.555389, "activity_lines": [ 25.022, 25.462, 25.432714, 25.682581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.77, "volume": 688048, "typical_volume": 1098549.2, "trend": 26.114333, "fair_value": 19.448077, "relative_strength": -2.357159, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.197849, "energy": 21.964687, "activity_lines": [ 25.246, 25.486182, 25.473524, 25.658645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.08, "volume": 855907, "typical_volume": 1066895.5, "trend": 26.050333, "fair_value": 19.520577, "relative_strength": -8.153057, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.860104, "energy": 22.978737, "activity_lines": [ 25.224667, 25.370182, 25.442048, 25.591914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }