{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72e44410-abf5-425a-8f19-556d230a90ad", "symbol": "MDZ", "name": "MediaZest plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.004, "architecture_energy": 69.599, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.16, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.87, "rotation_up": 9.5, "upward_expansion": 14.45, "deceleration": 37.28, "rotation_down": 77.41, "downward_expansion": 92.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.000821, 0.00089, 0.000944, 0.000964 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.00073, "trend_reference": 0.000978, "distance_from_trend": -0.253579, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.000744, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.018614, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.608791, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.231579, "excess_performance": -0.282814, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.253579, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030558, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.018614, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.431914, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.276088, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.355161, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.231579, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.146769, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 96363773, "relative_activity": 4.622002, "balance": 0.146769, "dry_up": 2.418341, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.211802, "annualized_volatility": 0.655935, "from_high_reference": -0.478571, "from_low_reference": 0.073529 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.000978, "fair_value_reference": 0.000744, "structural_low": 0.00073, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": -0.008601, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.323529, "worst_return": -0.294872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.057937, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.042071, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.511628, "worst_return": -0.153846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.007168, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.395349, "worst_return": -0.188679, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": 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0.001008, 0.001003, 0.001003 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.00095, "volume": 583874, "typical_volume": 18513121.65, "trend": 0.000991, "fair_value": 0.000739, "relative_strength": -4.091371, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.295254, "energy": 13.885529, "activity_lines": [ 0.000967, 0.000997, 0.000997, 0.001001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.00083, "volume": 46622442, "typical_volume": 19028502.8, "trend": 0.000988, "fair_value": 0.00074, "relative_strength": -16.994586, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.706631, "energy": 37.506017, "activity_lines": [ 0.000917, 0.000965, 0.000981, 0.000991 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.00083, "volume": 58109155, "typical_volume": 16910194.95, "trend": 0.000982, "fair_value": 0.000742, "relative_strength": -17.800914, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.631447, "energy": 57.025964, "activity_lines": [ 0.000881, 0.000935, 0.000967, 0.00098 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.00073, "volume": 96363773, "typical_volume": 20848926.8, "trend": 0.000978, "fair_value": 0.000744, "relative_strength": -27.608791, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.00425, "energy": 69.599406, "activity_lines": [ 0.000821, 0.00089, 0.000944, 0.000964 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }