{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72e55b15-d17c-48ef-adb4-e54cfc03f171", "symbol": "BILVYAPAR", "name": "BIL Vyapar Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.753, "architecture_energy": 62.764, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.952, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.97, "rotation_up": 28.67, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.91, "rotation_down": 56.24, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.08, 4.141636, 4.463095, 4.862151 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.08, "trend_reference": 5.459667, "distance_from_trend": -0.252702, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.798077, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.681202, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.348078, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.432545, "excess_performance": -0.388836, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.252702, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.211373, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.681202, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064874, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.453481, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019521, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.432545, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.691, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16473, "relative_activity": 0.571911, "balance": 0.691, "dry_up": 1.01973, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084842, "annualized_volatility": 0.519615, "from_high_reference": -0.722449, "from_low_reference": 0.073684 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.459667, "fair_value_reference": 12.798077, "structural_low": 3.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.038797, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": -0.040877, "regime_survival": 0.894737, "best_return": 0.734259, "worst_return": -0.384956, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.018953, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.032963, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.296269, "worst_return": -0.366696, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.102985, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.17632, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.130872, "worst_return": -0.354693, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.0875, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024698, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.103043, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040921, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.19403, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.124352, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.22053, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054908, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042345, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.631769, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 14.55, "volume": 15739, "typical_volume": 264658.45, "trend": 18.258333, "fair_value": 7.99391, "relative_strength": 6.182559, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": 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68.845117, "activity_lines": [ 4.138667, 4.215091, 4.632667, 5.062043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.06, "volume": 45041, "typical_volume": 29885.6, "trend": 5.562, "fair_value": 12.872885, "relative_strength": -46.2755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.610533, "energy": 65.561199, "activity_lines": [ 4.098667, 4.169273, 4.541476, 4.957763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.08, "volume": 16473, "typical_volume": 28803.45, "trend": 5.459667, "fair_value": 12.798077, "relative_strength": -45.348078, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.753294, "energy": 62.763745, "activity_lines": [ 4.08, 4.141636, 4.463095, 4.862151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }