{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72e5e814-6b90-4437-b78f-720c1c96ac60", "symbol": "HGRE11", "name": "CSHG Real Estate - Fundo de Investimento Imobiliario - FII", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 48.474, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.946, "architecture_energy": 73.111, "architecture_maturity": 20.251, "architecture_confidence": 78.709, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.34, "rotation_up": 11.34, "upward_expansion": 18.04, "deceleration": 34.25, "rotation_down": 76.76, "downward_expansion": 91.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 119.013405, 121.212759, 123.214296, 123.67144 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 117.300003, "trend_reference": 123.883297, "distance_from_trend": -0.053141, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 105.339328, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.113544, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.06264, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.050507, "excess_performance": 0.006541, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.053141, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013969, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.113544, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131041, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050626, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011784, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.050507, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.40441, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 90579, "relative_activity": 1.240572, "balance": 0.40441, "dry_up": 1.366658, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036387, "annualized_volatility": 0.142694, "from_high_reference": -0.098979, "from_low_reference": 0.17662 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 123.883297, "fair_value_reference": 105.339328, "structural_low": 115.519997, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.011998, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.007369, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.107906, "worst_return": -0.045271, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.059106, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.057643, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.131301, "worst_return": -0.104441, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.149412, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.058015, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.198816, "worst_return": -0.076584, 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"relative_strength": -5.935024, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.521843, "energy": 41.452411, "activity_lines": [ 122.009224, 123.323504, 124.393787, 124.432508 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 118.94082, "volume": 95714, "typical_volume": 72838.8, "trend": 124.00012, "fair_value": 105.294978, "relative_strength": -6.852704, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.368999, "energy": 53.809002, "activity_lines": [ 120.556482, 122.343049, 123.866676, 124.103705 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 117.300003, "volume": 90579, "typical_volume": 73013.9, "trend": 123.883297, "fair_value": 105.339328, "relative_strength": -5.06264, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.946452, "energy": 73.111357, "activity_lines": [ 119.013405, 121.212759, 123.214296, 123.67144 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }