{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72e780fa-8ac4-4047-ab3e-3bad872b3e93", "symbol": "EUS3", "name": "WisdomTree Long USD Short EUR 3x Daily", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 62.166, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.556, "architecture_energy": 52.683, "architecture_maturity": 62.989, "architecture_confidence": 40.035, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.19, "rotation_up": 39.09, "upward_expansion": 67.83, "deceleration": 70.92, "rotation_down": 27.74, "downward_expansion": 22.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 88.659465, 88.918725, 87.018004, 85.672608 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 88.169998, "trend_reference": 83.955266, "distance_from_trend": 0.050202, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 92.787166, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.049761, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.586212, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.122155, "excess_performance": 0.005493, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050202, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025021, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.049761, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087436, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.115862, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052974, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.122155, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.072961, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12, "relative_activity": 0.668524, "balance": 0.072961, "dry_up": 0.947075, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013952, "annualized_volatility": 0.166466, "from_high_reference": -0.070819, "from_low_reference": 0.129226 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 83.955266, "fair_value_reference": 92.787166, "structural_low": 78.571999, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.02006, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.023268, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.082793, "worst_return": -0.037076, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.073621, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.037193, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.125864, "worst_return": -0.171968, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.13633, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.059461, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.214981, "worst_return": -0.150532, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.38062, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.459743, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.38062, "worst_return": 0.38062, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2021-07-09", "end": "2021-09-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004947, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2021-09-17", "end": "2021-10-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036158, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2021-10-08", "end": "2022-01-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.057325, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2022-01-28", "end": "2022-03-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03849, "active": false 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"stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.553414, "energy": 79.381773, "activity_lines": [ 89.670864, 87.728417, 85.498647, 84.557993 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 89.588997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 14.8, "trend": 84.589733, "fair_value": 92.909179, "relative_strength": -10.044315, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.310032, "energy": 88.515699, "activity_lines": [ 89.908864, 88.386562, 86.0144, 84.869126 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 89.588997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 14.55, "trend": 84.413033, "fair_value": 92.875198, "relative_strength": -9.453197, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.838959, "energy": 87.708225, "activity_lines": [ 89.81853, 88.88138, 86.47769, 85.19166 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 87.876999, "volume": 56, "typical_volume": 17.35, "trend": 84.179266, "fair_value": 92.830243, "relative_strength": -11.409858, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.903438, "energy": 63.43596, "activity_lines": [ 89.076731, 88.901598, 86.745856, 85.415141 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 88.169998, "volume": 12, "typical_volume": 17.95, "trend": 83.955266, "fair_value": 92.787166, "relative_strength": -11.586212, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.556297, "energy": 52.68299, "activity_lines": [ 88.659465, 88.918725, 87.018004, 85.672608 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }