{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72e8b83a-3779-4f1a-9b21-bd34c01802c3", "symbol": "300349", "name": "Goldcard Smart Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.185, "architecture_energy": 55.561, "architecture_maturity": 39.397, "architecture_confidence": 84.472, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 18.24, "upward_expansion": 8.82, "deceleration": 50.06, "rotation_down": 62.6, "downward_expansion": 82.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.125333, 10.472727, 11.500403, 12.34855 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.53, "trend_reference": 13.656869, "distance_from_trend": -0.228959, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.274712, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.142139, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.08654, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.33159, "excess_performance": -0.33899, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.228959, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066276, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.142139, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.27414, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.240865, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090145, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.33159, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.437051, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 57330557, "relative_activity": 1.274105, "balance": 1.437051, "dry_up": 0.828898, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.130606, "annualized_volatility": 0.480245, "from_high_reference": -0.496494, "from_low_reference": 0.121406 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.656869, "fair_value_reference": 12.274712, "structural_low": 9.39, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.018538, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": 0.019084, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.375479, "worst_return": -0.110733, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.098297, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.021901, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.207041, "worst_return": -0.041767, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.176695, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.021618, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.234577, "worst_return": 0.07728, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046531, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004098, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0064, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057351, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008378, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061629, "active": false }, 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"relative_strength": -29.960402, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.22981, "energy": 80.208519, "activity_lines": [ 10.112, 10.826727, 11.914505, 12.805335 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.16, "volume": 29451157, "typical_volume": 44011432.35, "trend": 13.817892, "fair_value": 12.285229, "relative_strength": -23.351791, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.911119, "energy": 71.150841, "activity_lines": [ 10.033333, 10.572727, 11.679512, 12.560672 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.53, "volume": 57330557, "typical_volume": 44996714.15, "trend": 13.656869, "fair_value": 12.274712, "relative_strength": -24.08654, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.184979, "energy": 55.561287, "activity_lines": [ 10.125333, 10.472727, 11.500403, 12.34855 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }