{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72ea6931-201e-4eef-b167-ad3ba2ebeb28", "symbol": "QTJL", "name": "Innovator Growth Accelerated Plus ETF - July", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.81, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 21.024, "architecture_energy": 26.534, "architecture_maturity": 59.875, "architecture_confidence": 79.93, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.85, "rotation_up": 21.97, "upward_expansion": 43.97, "deceleration": 85.16, "rotation_down": 44.9, "downward_expansion": 35.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.932547, 41.184069, 41.40526, 41.028653 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 41.9878, "trend_reference": 40.53125, "distance_from_trend": 0.035936, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.366705, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.258374, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.418676, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.065772, "excess_performance": -0.059853, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035936, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021639, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.258374, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049284, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.054187, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03161, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.065772, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.654973, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 173657, "relative_activity": 5.605989, "balance": 1.654973, "dry_up": 2.338029, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019574, "annualized_volatility": 0.127507, "from_high_reference": -0.007146, "from_low_reference": 0.147835 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.53125, "fair_value_reference": 33.366705, "structural_low": 37.101, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.007207, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.007218, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.103381, "worst_return": -0.056807, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.074508, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.03597, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.126951, "worst_return": 0.067358, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.186003, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.016914, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.21022, "worst_return": 0.161786, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036824, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.211032, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041361, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.112893, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049067, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.572429, "energy": 50.293402, "activity_lines": [ 41.834853, 41.931705, 41.483704, 40.956424 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.5598, "volume": 65795, "typical_volume": 20517.15, "trend": 40.409853, "fair_value": 33.07171, "relative_strength": -5.367002, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.393159, "energy": 25.701928, "activity_lines": [ 41.37744, 41.677029, 41.459122, 40.96901 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.8878, "volume": 32130, "typical_volume": 21626.7, "trend": 40.42059, "fair_value": 33.16138, "relative_strength": -6.258516, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": -19.791686, "energy": 34.930411, "activity_lines": [ 40.80004, 41.323447, 41.365335, 40.935329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.3352, "volume": 18119, "typical_volume": 22417.15, "trend": 40.455893, "fair_value": 33.257876, "relative_strength": -6.090994, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.399972, "energy": 30.862883, "activity_lines": [ 40.52692, 41.087978, 41.310041, 40.92982 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.9878, "volume": 173657, "typical_volume": 30977.05, "trend": 40.53125, "fair_value": 33.366705, "relative_strength": -5.418676, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.024428, "energy": 26.533887, "activity_lines": [ 40.932547, 41.184069, 41.40526, 41.028653 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }