{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72ec8bc8-0dd0-4fda-82a9-abab3edbb121", "symbol": "PRS", "name": "Promotora de Informaciones, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.985, "architecture_energy": 23.451, "architecture_maturity": 68.52, "architecture_confidence": 77.025, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.03, "rotation_up": 19.93, "upward_expansion": 1.46, "deceleration": 55.88, "rotation_down": 40.46, "downward_expansion": 70.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.983333, 2.991455, 2.994857, 3.038731 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.0, "trend_reference": 3.132333, "distance_from_trend": -0.042248, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.445897, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.1294, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.252453, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.122807, "excess_performance": -0.247238, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.042248, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062924, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.1294, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00194, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.242525, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008002, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.122807, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.378594, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 67156, "relative_activity": 0.440168, "balance": 1.378594, "dry_up": 0.42573, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069077, "annualized_volatility": 0.200484, "from_high_reference": -0.220779, "from_low_reference": 0.104566 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.132333, "fair_value_reference": 3.445897, "structural_low": 2.716, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.008982, "positive_rate": 0.548387, "directional_follow_through": 0.451613, "median_excess_return": -0.036301, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 0.255319, "worst_return": -0.285386, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.101938, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.228669, "worst_return": -0.30273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.092643, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.077029, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.263333, "worst_return": -0.399399, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.110015, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.27814, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.124629, "worst_return": -0.380273, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020588, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041298, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008982, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079179, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032086, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048969, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014634, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046455, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036649, 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3.033333, 3.009455, 3.02219, 3.095247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.89, "volume": 30566, "typical_volume": 253614.95, "trend": 3.189667, "fair_value": 3.463974, "relative_strength": -25.460565, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.510275, "energy": 28.613747, "activity_lines": [ 2.986, 2.989636, 3.005238, 3.074366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.93, "volume": 59319, "typical_volume": 252274.5, "trend": 3.170333, "fair_value": 3.457436, "relative_strength": -25.073193, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.000382, "energy": 29.097843, "activity_lines": [ 2.962, 2.980364, 2.995, 3.057613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.03, "volume": 102772, "typical_volume": 150220.3, "trend": 3.152333, "fair_value": 3.451346, "relative_strength": -22.632089, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.448879, "energy": 23.581824, "activity_lines": [ 2.977333, 2.989455, 2.99619, 3.048559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.0, "volume": 67156, "typical_volume": 152569.05, "trend": 3.132333, "fair_value": 3.445897, "relative_strength": -24.252453, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.984592, "energy": 23.451479, "activity_lines": [ 2.983333, 2.991455, 2.994857, 3.038731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }