{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72f4e030-46ad-4705-8808-fed2742554a9", "symbol": "HELIO", "name": "Heliospectra AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 60.313, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.17, "architecture_energy": 31.929, "architecture_maturity": 50.384, "architecture_confidence": 91.161, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.08, "rotation_up": 21.13, "upward_expansion": 7.77, "deceleration": 41.03, "rotation_down": 47.7, "downward_expansion": 78.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.093867, 0.094773, 0.096374, 0.097846 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.094, "trend_reference": 0.09945, "distance_from_trend": -0.054801, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.355979, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.735939, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.346932, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.087379, "excess_performance": -0.148873, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.054801, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002352, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.735939, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018502, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.303469, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118535, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.087379, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.363808, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.363808, "dry_up": 0.151788, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114157, "annualized_volatility": 0.875013, "from_high_reference": -0.651852, "from_low_reference": 0.352518 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.09945, "fair_value_reference": 0.355979, "structural_low": 0.08, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.042308, "positive_rate": 0.315789, "directional_follow_through": 0.315789, "median_excess_return": -0.044849, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.165493, "worst_return": -0.253731, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.138889, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.146853, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.028302, "worst_return": -0.250936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.344064, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.260404, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.152344, "worst_return": -0.447005, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.706122, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.83864, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.137324, "worst_return": -0.792757, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2021-07-09", "end": "2021-07-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007067, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2021-07-30", "end": "2022-03-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.496528, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-03-25", "end": "2022-09-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.161972, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-09-09", "end": "2022-11-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.48, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-11-18", "end": "2023-05-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.1875, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-02", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.61435, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.12, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.214545, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014599, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.215517, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074447, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042735, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.747178, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.113208, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.858, "volume": 150627, "typical_volume": 67534.8, "trend": 1.128333, "fair_value": 1.974336, "relative_strength": -25.684339, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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"fair_value": 0.375957, "relative_strength": -36.495453, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.364931, "energy": 22.912519, "activity_lines": [ 0.096, 0.096509, 0.098205, 0.09941 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0935, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 108454.6, "trend": 0.100067, "fair_value": 0.371056, "relative_strength": -33.632497, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.004222, "energy": 18.596812, "activity_lines": [ 0.095767, 0.095873, 0.097605, 0.09899 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.094, "volume": 57593, "typical_volume": 108056.7, "trend": 0.100183, "fair_value": 0.365915, "relative_strength": -32.261252, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.045256, "energy": 19.69034, "activity_lines": [ 0.095367, 0.095555, 0.09714, 0.098599 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.094, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 100786.9, "trend": 0.099483, "fair_value": 0.361081, "relative_strength": -31.118495, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.008877, "energy": 30.322326, "activity_lines": [ 0.094433, 0.095164, 0.096733, 0.0982 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.094, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 94857.5, "trend": 0.09945, "fair_value": 0.355979, "relative_strength": -30.346932, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.169654, "energy": 31.928829, "activity_lines": [ 0.093867, 0.094773, 0.096374, 0.097846 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }