{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72f9efaf-8478-4da7-bc81-fd85520dfde9", "symbol": "ZEG", "name": "Zegona Communications plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 48.659, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.652, "architecture_energy": 58.875, "architecture_maturity": 15.451, "architecture_confidence": 81.626, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.78, "rotation_up": 11.68, "upward_expansion": 11.36, "deceleration": 42.26, "rotation_down": 69.87, "downward_expansion": 87.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 149.48, 154.058182, 163.671905, 166.364731 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 152.0, "trend_reference": 167.61, "distance_from_trend": -0.093133, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 76.130366, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.996575, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.265709, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.047022, "excess_performance": -0.098257, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.093133, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056756, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.996575, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.820759, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.062657, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.450524, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.047022, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.703964, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1736833, "relative_activity": 0.751347, "balance": 0.703964, "dry_up": 0.852205, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089221, "annualized_volatility": 0.33994, "from_high_reference": -0.249383, "from_low_reference": 0.522026 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 167.61, "fair_value_reference": 76.130366, "structural_low": 137.2, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.145833, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.148471, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.145833, "worst_return": -0.145833, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.270833, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.311016, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.270833, "worst_return": -0.270833, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.277083, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.321097, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.277083, "worst_return": -0.277083, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 154.2, 163.425455, 169.73381, 169.690538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 150.0, "volume": 1647273, "typical_volume": 3062810.0, "trend": 166.653333, "fair_value": 74.679752, "relative_strength": -5.232822, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.349309, "energy": 66.088759, "activity_lines": [ 151.4, 159.912727, 167.661905, 168.653763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 146.2, "volume": 1788603, "typical_volume": 2857807.85, "trend": 167.026667, "fair_value": 75.383268, "relative_strength": -9.213053, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.337432, "energy": 66.715839, "activity_lines": [ 148.613333, 156.134545, 165.325714, 167.334194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 152.0, "volume": 1736833, "typical_volume": 2311626.45, "trend": 167.61, "fair_value": 76.130366, "relative_strength": -6.265709, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.651978, "energy": 58.874765, "activity_lines": [ 149.48, 154.058182, 163.671905, 166.364731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }