{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72fa2e29-36ee-437f-a992-570262beb2ea", "symbol": "SMSNN", "name": "Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -26.589, "architecture_energy": 48.887, "architecture_maturity": 38.347, "architecture_confidence": 69.277, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.47, "rotation_up": 14.0, "upward_expansion": 48.02, "deceleration": 88.0, "rotation_down": 59.35, "downward_expansion": 42.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 71190.802344, 80490.038992, 81808.573568, 76884.683048 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 65243.371094, "trend_reference": 68992.09336, "distance_from_trend": -0.054336, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32540.630559, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.004982, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 23.530889, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.327861, "excess_performance": 0.382528, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.054336, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.342401, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.004982, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.449941, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.235309, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.482736, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.327861, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.649635, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 4.649635, "dry_up": 0.368179, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093264, "annualized_volatility": 0.586562, "from_high_reference": -0.367184, "from_low_reference": 1.982191 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 68992.09336, "fair_value_reference": 32540.630559, "structural_low": 49134.179688, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.012344, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.036674, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.156806, "worst_return": -0.073253, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.007092, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.03154, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.142584, "worst_return": -0.155918, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.100873, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.055884, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.466037, "worst_return": -0.240723, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.209233, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.028687, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.265663, "worst_return": -0.206567, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025543, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055504, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.030846, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095193, "active": false }, { 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"Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": -11.0459, "energy": 37.512323, "activity_lines": [ 76647.663282, 84922.273722, 82968.061793, 77079.346052 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65243.371094, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 76.05, "trend": 68992.09336, "fair_value": 32540.630559, "relative_strength": 23.530889, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": -26.589463, "energy": 48.886504, "activity_lines": [ 71190.802344, 80490.038992, 81808.573568, 76884.683048 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }