{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72fa68f5-adf0-49d5-b813-f57dd1163e38", "symbol": "QCORE", "name": "Qlucore AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.496, "architecture_energy": 16.999, "architecture_maturity": 37.334, "architecture_confidence": 71.072, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.49, "rotation_up": 26.31, "upward_expansion": 16.89, "deceleration": 43.83, "rotation_down": 28.81, "downward_expansion": 55.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.379867, 0.365745, 0.39049, 0.403439 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.401, "trend_reference": 0.4164, "distance_from_trend": -0.036984, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.285373, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.906426, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.924325, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.002488, "excess_performance": -0.063982, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.036984, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077128, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.906426, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004596, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.269243, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057029, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002488, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.27107, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 91938, "relative_activity": 0.362699, "balance": 0.27107, "dry_up": 0.427054, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.27182, "annualized_volatility": 0.871928, "from_high_reference": -0.764118, "from_low_reference": 0.882629 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.4164, "fair_value_reference": 4.285373, "structural_low": 0.213, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.052083, "positive_rate": 0.344828, "directional_follow_through": 0.62069, "median_excess_return": -0.057689, "regime_survival": 0.862069, "best_return": 0.313636, "worst_return": -0.430108, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.12959, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.094018, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.163121, "worst_return": -0.633333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.211382, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.17604, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.301587, "worst_return": -0.783333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.092486, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.098765, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116402, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.092715, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.104167, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.864516, 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0.426433, "fair_value": 4.460392, "relative_strength": -28.520082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.321384, "energy": 48.654166, "activity_lines": [ 0.3416, 0.365109, 0.399829, 0.411359 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.38, "volume": 223607, "typical_volume": 249815.75, "trend": 0.4239, "fair_value": 4.404815, "relative_strength": -30.809211, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.214802, "energy": 30.260255, "activity_lines": [ 0.354733, 0.364036, 0.396186, 0.408363 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.366, "volume": 65610, "typical_volume": 251914.85, "trend": 0.419433, "fair_value": 4.350751, "relative_strength": -33.253108, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.122563, "energy": 20.052726, "activity_lines": [ 0.363133, 0.361036, 0.391524, 0.404628 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.401, "volume": 91938, "typical_volume": 253483.25, "trend": 0.4164, "fair_value": 4.285373, "relative_strength": -26.924325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.496349, "energy": 16.999085, "activity_lines": [ 0.379867, 0.365745, 0.39049, 0.403439 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }