{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72fbd051-ce90-43b4-869a-d3471b16e62b", "symbol": "CRDA", "name": "Croda International Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 70.29, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.502, "architecture_energy": 54.042, "architecture_maturity": 25.388, "architecture_confidence": 89.181, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.96, "rotation_up": 59.57, "upward_expansion": 80.62, "deceleration": 51.58, "rotation_down": 17.22, "downward_expansion": 11.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 3112.933333, 3063.509091, 3012.781887, 2973.983965 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3265.0, "trend_reference": 2922.095996, "distance_from_trend": 0.117349, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3614.550911, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.096707, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.185563, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.197099, "excess_performance": 0.13082, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.117349, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031946, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.096707, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.164532, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.061856, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119735, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.197099, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.416164, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2736713, "relative_activity": 1.712698, "balance": 3.416164, "dry_up": 1.338354, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056204, "annualized_volatility": 0.375805, "from_high_reference": -0.025955, "from_low_reference": 0.345946 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2922.095996, "fair_value_reference": 3614.550911, "structural_low": 2487.477492, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.027729, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.012325, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.142184, "worst_return": -0.231818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.01388, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.039855, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.08201, "worst_return": -0.177134, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.016349, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.02255, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.238341, "worst_return": -0.271038, 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2979.218182, 2953.700774, 2930.37328 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3205.0, "volume": 2768551, "typical_volume": 1637441.15, "trend": 2904.643473, "fair_value": 3630.111733, "relative_strength": 4.621661, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.969372, "energy": 28.132832, "activity_lines": [ 3025.066667, 3017.854545, 2981.64505, 2950.735157 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3265.0, "volume": 2736713, "typical_volume": 1597895.4, "trend": 2922.095996, "fair_value": 3614.550911, "relative_strength": 6.185563, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.501763, "energy": 54.04247, "activity_lines": [ 3112.933333, 3063.509091, 3012.781887, 2973.983965 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }