{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72fca661-3ead-4833-a319-d99c2fcb0ab5", "symbol": "002133", "name": "Cosmos Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.654, "architecture_energy": 55.341, "architecture_maturity": 92.366, "architecture_confidence": 94.881, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 28.13, "upward_expansion": 9.97, "deceleration": 60.76, "rotation_down": 51.01, "downward_expansion": 83.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.499333, 2.509818, 2.704429, 2.904409 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.6, "trend_reference": 3.156, "distance_from_trend": -0.176172, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.953737, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.119759, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.794747, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.310345, "excess_performance": -0.317745, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.176172, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090839, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.119759, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.244573, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.237947, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059684, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.310345, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.205146, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56615940, "relative_activity": 0.864348, "balance": 0.205146, "dry_up": 1.018923, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085207, "annualized_volatility": 0.307353, "from_high_reference": -0.373494, "from_low_reference": 0.140351 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.156, "fair_value_reference": 2.953737, "structural_low": 2.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.014706, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.010475, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.161994, "worst_return": -0.135659, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.091155, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009722, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.418685, "worst_return": -0.234568, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.120776, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.095366, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.207612, "worst_return": -0.232224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080229, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.246376, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084943, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.161184, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.093617, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.155642, 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.649068, "energy": 83.415852, "activity_lines": [ 2.497333, 2.598182, 2.854286, 3.046882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.33, "volume": 78128703, "typical_volume": 67142048.95, "trend": 3.214, "fair_value": 2.965489, "relative_strength": -30.242275, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.135416, "energy": 68.977724, "activity_lines": [ 2.439333, 2.528909, 2.783476, 2.987398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.51, "volume": 59015512, "typical_volume": 66520947.3, "trend": 3.182333, "fair_value": 2.960066, "relative_strength": -23.147626, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.845721, "energy": 62.632524, "activity_lines": [ 2.456667, 2.506364, 2.73681, 2.941978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.6, "volume": 56615940, "typical_volume": 65501306.25, "trend": 3.156, "fair_value": 2.953737, "relative_strength": -23.794747, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.654283, "energy": 55.341012, "activity_lines": [ 2.499333, 2.509818, 2.704429, 2.904409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }