{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72fd4e45-5dba-4b3b-a5c9-371f2e1ca798", "symbol": "INVA", "name": "Innoviva Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 71.801, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -43.573, "architecture_energy": 56.66, "architecture_maturity": 7.999, "architecture_confidence": 70.867, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.44, "rotation_up": 17.68, "upward_expansion": 19.85, "deceleration": 43.37, "rotation_down": 70.97, "downward_expansion": 63.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.094, 21.673818, 22.108476, 22.258731 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 20.51, "trend_reference": 22.172667, "distance_from_trend": -0.074987, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.370032, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.116492, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.134196, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.059174, "excess_performance": -0.246628, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.074987, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021641, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.116492, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.182474, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.151342, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077656, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.059174, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.5861, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4521020, "relative_activity": 1.201436, "balance": 0.5861, "dry_up": 0.943568, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067204, "annualized_volatility": 0.217244, "from_high_reference": -0.184331, "from_low_reference": 0.241525 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.172667, "fair_value_reference": 18.370032, "structural_low": 20.2, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.01265, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.02259, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.202305, "worst_return": -0.092695, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.011416, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.064148, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.12853, "worst_return": -0.133211, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.096461, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.02112, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.369452, "worst_return": -0.168201, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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23.311201, "energy": 11.497673, "activity_lines": [ 22.591333, 22.511091, 22.661095, 22.49486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.71, "volume": 3611687, "typical_volume": 3801046.45, "trend": 22.050333, "fair_value": 18.224519, "relative_strength": -7.060298, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.997378, "energy": 4.457354, "activity_lines": [ 22.271333, 22.374545, 22.568429, 22.476602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.44, "volume": 3287005, "typical_volume": 3798531.2, "trend": 22.105, "fair_value": 18.27766, "relative_strength": -6.628842, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.83793, "energy": 24.839185, "activity_lines": [ 21.93, 22.210364, 22.456, 22.437226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.97, "volume": 2782927, "typical_volume": 3790452.45, "trend": 22.141667, "fair_value": 18.325096, "relative_strength": -9.003797, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.94522, "energy": 46.033415, "activity_lines": [ 21.502, 21.970364, 22.301619, 22.364 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.51, "volume": 4521020, "typical_volume": 3763013.9, "trend": 22.172667, "fair_value": 18.370032, "relative_strength": -15.134196, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.573244, "energy": 56.659547, "activity_lines": [ 21.094, 21.673818, 22.108476, 22.258731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }