{ "ticker": { "uuid": "730469ad-cc1e-4b68-9902-2f9b51a77c8c", "symbol": "1787", "name": "Nakabohtec Corrosion Protecting Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.023, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 30.934, "architecture_energy": 32.63, "architecture_maturity": 47.258, "architecture_confidence": 44.729, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.59, "rotation_up": 49.15, "upward_expansion": 44.29, "deceleration": 50.4, "rotation_down": 25.99, "downward_expansion": 16.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 5921.333333, 5896.545455, 5696.857143, 5686.823971 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 5920.0, "trend_reference": 5688.334587, "distance_from_trend": 0.040726, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4824.838526, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.226984, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.871055, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.042986, "excess_performance": -0.118748, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040726, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032779, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.226984, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.137699, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.088711, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.161953, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.042986, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.518072, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1700, "relative_activity": 0.692464, "balance": 1.518072, "dry_up": 0.936864, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037292, "annualized_volatility": 0.244994, "from_high_reference": -0.075991, "from_low_reference": 0.218175 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5688.334587, "fair_value_reference": 4824.838526, "structural_low": 5130.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.04383, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.031437, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.004024, "worst_return": -0.196546, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.017393, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.058246, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.00442, "worst_return": -0.285362, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.024376, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.133075, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.063279, "worst_return": -0.287829, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003923, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003012, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.05169, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021033, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-04-17", 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"fair_value": 4788.86468, "relative_strength": -7.822641, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.714868, "energy": 66.918588, "activity_lines": [ 5931.333333, 5690.0, 5585.294564, 5620.079388 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5800.0, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 3565.0, "trend": 5638.822184, "fair_value": 4797.636988, "relative_strength": -9.955944, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.268143, "energy": 63.53519, "activity_lines": [ 5926.0, 5740.727273, 5601.107738, 5631.622327 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6020.0, "volume": 3000, "typical_volume": 2625.0, "trend": 5659.463818, "fair_value": 4807.15892, "relative_strength": -7.820292, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.399447, "energy": 62.302096, "activity_lines": [ 5960.666667, 5819.636364, 5639.452381, 5656.214444 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 5890.0, "volume": 3500, "typical_volume": 2610.0, "trend": 5676.088509, "fair_value": 4815.902569, "relative_strength": -13.382813, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.195209, "energy": 35.382113, "activity_lines": [ 5930.666667, 5861.454545, 5665.857143, 5671.087746 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 5920.0, "volume": 1700, "typical_volume": 2455.0, "trend": 5688.334587, "fair_value": 4824.838526, "relative_strength": -8.871055, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.934111, "energy": 32.629745, "activity_lines": [ 5921.333333, 5896.545455, 5696.857143, 5686.823971 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }