{ "ticker": { "uuid": "730a76ac-cafa-4651-88e5-dfd38c144c11", "symbol": "PROK", "name": "ProKidney Corp.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.597, "architecture_energy": 84.045, "architecture_maturity": 71.743, "architecture_confidence": 82.599, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.74, "rotation_up": 11.06, "upward_expansion": 21.88, "deceleration": 34.18, "rotation_down": 80.6, "downward_expansion": 95.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.332001, 29.171455, 30.320953, 31.543613 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 26.700001, "trend_reference": 33.241667, "distance_from_trend": -0.196791, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 41.100705, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.350376, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -33.725377, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.171836, "excess_performance": -0.117169, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.196791, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116986, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.350376, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055142, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.337254, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108312, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.171836, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.497137, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.497137, "dry_up": 1.446008, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089398, "annualized_volatility": 0.643289, "from_high_reference": -0.578532, "from_low_reference": 0.007547 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.241667, "fair_value_reference": 41.100705, "structural_low": 26.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.097516, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.091253, "regime_survival": 0.9375, "best_return": 3.269294, "worst_return": -0.447174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.164914, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.152051, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 3.2, "worst_return": -0.539312, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.238448, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.228656, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 2.913333, "worst_return": -0.615286, "sufficient": false }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018859, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035054, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111978, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06189, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.238448, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 166.0, "volume": 1020000, "typical_volume": null, "trend": 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"volume": 725, "typical_volume": 20819.3, "trend": 34.283334, "fair_value": 43.284039, "relative_strength": -33.120544, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.84461, "energy": 45.202093, "activity_lines": [ 29.907333, 30.654727, 31.308, 32.49185 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.700001, "volume": 5996, "typical_volume": 20287.95, "trend": 33.814334, "fair_value": 42.192372, "relative_strength": -34.556916, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.88972, "energy": 80.180736, "activity_lines": [ 28.451334, 29.884, 30.778429, 32.002602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.700001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 17936.1, "trend": 33.241667, "fair_value": 41.100705, "relative_strength": -33.725377, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.597246, "energy": 84.045076, "activity_lines": [ 27.332001, 29.171455, 30.320953, 31.543613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }