{ "ticker": { "uuid": "73124282-555f-4270-95b3-aafb94110fd1", "symbol": "HAYPP", "name": "Haypp Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.415, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.021, "architecture_energy": 13.556, "architecture_maturity": 41.082, "architecture_confidence": 73.873, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.85, "rotation_up": 28.4, "upward_expansion": 48.71, "deceleration": 79.76, "rotation_down": 30.84, "downward_expansion": 26.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 133.76, 134.810909, 135.32381, 132.99484 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 138.199997, "trend_reference": 129.300001, "distance_from_trend": 0.068832, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 99.704487, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.386096, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.524336, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.208042, "excess_performance": 0.146548, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068832, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024789, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.386096, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026211, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125243, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029009, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.208042, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.732888, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 91270, "relative_activity": 0.537189, "balance": 1.732888, "dry_up": 0.7722, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0885, "annualized_volatility": 0.37322, "from_high_reference": -0.256989, "from_low_reference": 0.311195 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 129.300001, "fair_value_reference": 99.704487, "structural_low": 109.199997, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.004132, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.057109, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.086956, "worst_return": -0.149451, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.01706, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.078785, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.170051, "worst_return": -0.301099, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.135171, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.174113, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.934884, "worst_return": -0.177665, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.468439, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006726, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.618421, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.128609, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.14823, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": 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"typical_volume": 197469.45, "trend": 130.120001, "fair_value": 98.089103, "relative_strength": -13.286103, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.053139, "energy": 18.149748, "activity_lines": [ 136.039999, 137.621819, 135.132382, 132.344948 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 128.800003, "volume": 121686, "typical_volume": 186302.5, "trend": 129.613335, "fair_value": 98.600641, "relative_strength": -16.670119, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.17495, "energy": 12.969096, "activity_lines": [ 133.573334, 135.763637, 134.820002, 132.259786 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 132.0, "volume": 120351, "typical_volume": 182048.6, "trend": 129.193334, "fair_value": 99.132692, "relative_strength": -15.188254, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.301812, "energy": 12.818487, "activity_lines": [ 132.293334, 134.600001, 134.794287, 132.413765 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 138.199997, "volume": 91270, "typical_volume": 169902.9, "trend": 129.300001, "fair_value": 99.704487, "relative_strength": -12.524336, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.021104, "energy": 13.555681, "activity_lines": [ 133.76, 134.810909, 135.32381, 132.99484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }