{ "ticker": { "uuid": "731be91e-c82b-4a35-b833-c9885c1fac15", "symbol": "ERO", "name": "Ero Copper Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 37.714, "architecture_energy": 27.325, "architecture_maturity": 19.157, "architecture_confidence": 79.044, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.3, "rotation_up": 43.69, "upward_expansion": 38.81, "deceleration": 39.16, "rotation_down": 29.8, "downward_expansion": 22.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.235999, 39.098727, 38.778285, 38.753914 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 47.779999, "trend_reference": 39.342333, "distance_from_trend": 0.214468, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.995513, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.769924, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 21.617994, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.142516, "excess_performance": 0.022094, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.214468, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032526, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.769924, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.272038, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.21618, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064206, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.142516, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.957124, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2402300, "relative_activity": 1.430502, "balance": 0.957124, "dry_up": 1.095877, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102344, "annualized_volatility": 0.751461, "from_high_reference": -0.110076, "from_low_reference": 1.572967 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.342333, "fair_value_reference": 26.995513, "structural_low": 30.77, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.031103, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.025061, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.271262, "worst_return": -0.183142, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.208594, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.105482, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.216453, "worst_return": -0.040259, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.507585, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.38462, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.600185, "worst_return": 0.110116, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.165111, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.103097, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.657103, "worst_return": -0.207699, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.14145, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066616, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.110519, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.135022, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.098955, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.150742, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012233, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048589, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061501, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.264182, 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39.053636, 38.661, 39.067763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 38.060001, "volume": 96300, "typical_volume": 1881750.0, "trend": 39.241667, "fair_value": 26.695705, "relative_strength": 3.390423, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.145842, "energy": 11.067395, "activity_lines": [ 39.049334, 38.988545, 38.588667, 38.999011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 36.23, "volume": 2064300, "typical_volume": 1868500.0, "trend": 39.289, "fair_value": 26.743654, "relative_strength": -2.214294, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.666801, "energy": 19.192325, "activity_lines": [ 38.132667, 38.576, 38.359857, 38.80471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.889999, "volume": 1854800, "typical_volume": 1805825.0, "trend": 39.211333, "fair_value": 26.778718, "relative_strength": -8.834243, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.831738, "energy": 43.01597, "activity_lines": [ 36.408, 37.702, 37.932047, 38.456387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.689999, "volume": 1560700, "typical_volume": 1768105.0, "trend": 39.181, "fair_value": 26.816603, "relative_strength": -2.188922, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.181012, "energy": 43.692764, "activity_lines": [ 36.095333, 37.429272, 37.831714, 38.29372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.639999, "volume": 1543600, "typical_volume": 1751370.0, "trend": 39.106, "fair_value": 26.871538, "relative_strength": 0.055258, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.180222, "energy": 41.250362, "activity_lines": [ 36.476666, 37.345272, 37.826381, 38.194301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.779999, "volume": 2402300, "typical_volume": 1679340.0, "trend": 39.342333, "fair_value": 26.995513, "relative_strength": 21.617994, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.713517, "energy": 27.325337, "activity_lines": [ 40.235999, 39.098727, 38.778285, 38.753914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }