{ "ticker": { "uuid": "731dc30b-0db9-4f06-9910-200b636e8179", "symbol": "CMR", "name": "Chiang Mai Ram Medical Business Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.472, "architecture_energy": 53.213, "architecture_maturity": 38.433, "architecture_confidence": 88.178, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.12, "rotation_up": 17.2, "upward_expansion": 8.12, "deceleration": 46.71, "rotation_down": 62.23, "downward_expansion": 81.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.255333, 1.264182, 1.278048, 1.295548 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.25, "trend_reference": 1.323333, "distance_from_trend": -0.055416, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.452067, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.139158, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.766155, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.100719, "excess_performance": -0.293044, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.055416, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018903, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.139158, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006906, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.197662, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051005, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.100719, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.654153, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3812700, "relative_activity": 4.454921, "balance": 0.654153, "dry_up": 2.051464, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026462, "annualized_volatility": 0.101244, "from_high_reference": -0.208861, "from_low_reference": 0.041667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.323333, "fair_value_reference": 1.452067, "structural_low": 1.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.009467, "positive_rate": 0.382353, "directional_follow_through": 0.558824, "median_excess_return": -0.015436, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.213675, "worst_return": -0.159509, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.047244, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.021864, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.313044, "worst_return": -0.159794, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.079096, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.024528, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.423143, "worst_return": -0.267551, "sufficient": true }, 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"relative_strength": -21.417445, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.400098, "energy": 49.603797, "activity_lines": [ 1.268, 1.275636, 1.287238, 1.305978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.25, "volume": 223000, "typical_volume": 706235.0, "trend": 1.328, "fair_value": 1.456564, "relative_strength": -20.759997, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.135965, "energy": 50.896909, "activity_lines": [ 1.260667, 1.269455, 1.282381, 1.300581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.25, "volume": 3812700, "typical_volume": 855840.0, "trend": 1.323333, "fair_value": 1.452067, "relative_strength": -19.766155, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.471715, "energy": 53.212887, "activity_lines": [ 1.255333, 1.264182, 1.278048, 1.295548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }