{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7324e484-2353-4ec6-89df-8c8df3b22d5a", "symbol": "000016", "name": "Konka Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.718, "architecture_energy": 46.136, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.794, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.88, "rotation_up": 25.63, "upward_expansion": 6.87, "deceleration": 60.47, "rotation_down": 47.77, "downward_expansion": 77.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.527333, 2.550909, 2.767762, 2.955527 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.56, "trend_reference": 3.338667, "distance_from_trend": -0.233227, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.129487, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.380068, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.611263, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.485944, "excess_performance": -0.493344, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.233227, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.206025, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.380068, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099123, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.416113, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061745, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.485944, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.484225, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 83336939, "relative_activity": 0.567253, "balance": 2.484225, "dry_up": 0.697615, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.132812, "annualized_volatility": 0.592172, "from_high_reference": -0.606154, "from_low_reference": 0.142857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.338667, "fair_value_reference": 4.129487, "structural_low": 2.24, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.013953, "positive_rate": 0.387097, "directional_follow_through": 0.612903, "median_excess_return": -0.021435, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.252796, "worst_return": -0.228963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.091934, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.044788, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.214876, "worst_return": -0.375734, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.143608, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.082111, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.041322, "worst_return": -0.518591, "sufficient": true }, { 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"volume": 94099777, "typical_volume": 157509160.45, "trend": 3.503667, "fair_value": 4.156538, "relative_strength": -43.542502, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.638794, "energy": 55.688331, "activity_lines": [ 2.5, 2.623091, 2.846571, 3.072473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.55, "volume": 88565297, "typical_volume": 152457422.85, "trend": 3.419, "fair_value": 4.142436, "relative_strength": -39.696885, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.582544, "energy": 50.873959, "activity_lines": [ 2.52, 2.579273, 2.804905, 3.010946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.56, "volume": 83336939, "typical_volume": 146913276.1, "trend": 3.338667, "fair_value": 4.129487, "relative_strength": -41.611263, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.718378, "energy": 46.135961, "activity_lines": [ 2.527333, 2.550909, 2.767762, 2.955527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }