{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7325e556-e4c5-47f7-949c-d2c1e8c0fe7a", "symbol": "000811", "name": "Moon Environment Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.034, "architecture_energy": 25.004, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.745, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.8, "rotation_up": 27.23, "upward_expansion": 64.51, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 28.04, "downward_expansion": 16.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.489333, 43.609507, 38.954445, 34.212222 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 42.279999, "trend_reference": 28.314799, "distance_from_trend": 0.493212, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.548627, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.120611, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 86.294794, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.629353, "excess_performance": 1.621953, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.493212, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.462231, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.120611, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.760728, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.862948, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.400365, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.629353, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.013203, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 258436232, "relative_activity": 1.446735, "balance": 1.013203, "dry_up": 1.521502, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.191131, "annualized_volatility": 0.888959, "from_high_reference": -0.268006, "from_low_reference": 2.488449 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.314799, "fair_value_reference": 13.548627, "structural_low": 15.67, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.004178, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003237, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.616435, "worst_return": -0.230506, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.072379, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.040339, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.417738, "worst_return": -0.163339, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.149139, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.036879, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.708203, "worst_return": -0.272002, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-10", "close": 53.470001, "volume": 261449814, "typical_volume": 154390056.8, "trend": 25.227799, "fair_value": 12.808814, "relative_strength": 146.704697, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.749268, "energy": 92.714133, "activity_lines": [ 49.879472, 43.275712, 35.095284, 30.449569 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 43.259998, "volume": 245210165, "typical_volume": 158799081.65, "trend": 26.063133, "fair_value": 13.010752, "relative_strength": 113.031355, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.804939, "energy": 76.641257, "activity_lines": [ 48.96384, 44.095152, 36.426598, 31.612936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.25, "volume": 287514431, "typical_volume": 163114572.15, "trend": 26.955133, "fair_value": 13.213583, "relative_strength": 106.434647, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.156903, "energy": 63.255768, "activity_lines": [ 47.208, 44.603068, 37.64815, 32.721766 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.299999, "volume": 296008332, "typical_volume": 169957118.2, "trend": 27.522799, "fair_value": 13.365261, "relative_strength": 67.656299, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.01918, "energy": 39.427208, "activity_lines": [ 42.591333, 43.480111, 38.007274, 33.260145 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.279999, "volume": 258436232, "typical_volume": 178634176.55, "trend": 28.314799, "fair_value": 13.548627, "relative_strength": 86.294794, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.034414, "energy": 25.003768, "activity_lines": [ 41.489333, 43.609507, 38.954445, 34.212222 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }