{ "ticker": { "uuid": "732997f5-dc67-44ed-9e1e-e68794741a83", "symbol": "1020", "name": "aljazira bank", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.655, "architecture_energy": 70.958, "architecture_maturity": 12.551, "architecture_confidence": 81.664, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.94, "rotation_up": 72.6, "upward_expansion": 87.77, "deceleration": 45.84, "rotation_down": 10.37, "downward_expansion": 14.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.139333, 11.996727, 11.824762, 11.760886 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.35, "trend_reference": 11.685215, "distance_from_trend": 0.056891, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.075963, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.022693, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.660254, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.033959, "excess_performance": 0.065788, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056891, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025071, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.022693, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062567, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.076603, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092814, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.033959, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.525503, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14102869, "relative_activity": 1.357516, "balance": 3.525503, "dry_up": 1.176653, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026783, "annualized_volatility": 0.109871, "from_high_reference": -0.033625, "from_low_reference": 0.189866 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.685215, "fair_value_reference": 12.075963, "structural_low": 11.02, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.009212, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.000548, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.196692, "worst_return": -0.168539, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.033163, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.034293, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.459452, "worst_return": -0.249921, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.04146, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.040111, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.187627, "worst_return": -0.137597, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 49.600348, "activity_lines": [ 11.817333, 11.730909, 11.671476, 11.642285 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.09, "volume": 16341372, "typical_volume": 10230314.2, "trend": 11.587068, "fair_value": 12.063005, "relative_strength": 5.929436, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.136654, "energy": 51.350302, "activity_lines": [ 11.904667, 11.814, 11.715952, 11.67808 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.15, "volume": 9751558, "typical_volume": 9905762.7, "trend": 11.629447, "fair_value": 12.069355, "relative_strength": 8.504682, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.313442, "energy": 60.071041, "activity_lines": [ 11.996, 11.894, 11.763095, 11.714398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.35, "volume": 14102869, "typical_volume": 10388732.15, "trend": 11.685215, "fair_value": 12.075963, "relative_strength": 7.660254, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.655134, "energy": 70.957768, "activity_lines": [ 12.139333, 11.996727, 11.824762, 11.760886 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }