{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "732b7aea-6293-4448-ae6a-c0dccbf12d7a",
    "symbol": "CDIV",
    "name": "Manulife Smart Dividend ETF",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 89.153,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 79.875,
    "architecture_energy": 76.55,
    "architecture_maturity": 37.507,
    "architecture_confidence": 79.064,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 9.39,
        "rotation_up": 71.16,
        "upward_expansion": 90.82,
        "deceleration": 49.07,
        "rotation_down": 19.17,
        "downward_expansion": 15.15
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        22.049333,
        21.899351,
        21.60101,
        21.285649
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Stable",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 22.23,
    "trend_reference": 20.850309,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.066171,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 16.152377,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.376268,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -0.854937,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.128594,
    "excess_performance": 0.008172,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.066171,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.040195,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.376268,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.010914,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.008549,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.006646,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.128594,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.041425,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 168700,
      "relative_activity": 1.190165,
      "balance": 2.041425,
      "dry_up": 1.240079,
      "accumulation_observations": 6,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.014753,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.108763,
      "from_high_reference": -0.004478,
      "from_low_reference": 0.311528
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 20.850309,
      "fair_value_reference": 16.152377,
      "structural_low": 19.398794,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 32,
        "median_return": 0.019963,
        "positive_rate": 0.71875,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.71875,
        "median_excess_return": 0.000552,
        "regime_survival": 0.8125,
        "best_return": 0.061793,
        "worst_return": -0.054381,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": 0.042574,
        "positive_rate": 0.7,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.7,
        "median_excess_return": 0.001723,
        "regime_survival": 0.7,
        "best_return": 0.10231,
        "worst_return": -0.024694,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.075089,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.007531,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.184585,
        "worst_return": 0.002594,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.179043,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.009736,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.322235,
        "worst_return": 0.034919,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2023-12-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2023-12-08",
        "end": "2023-12-22",
        "tenure": "New",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-05-17",
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        "return": 0.003636,
        "active": false
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 138090.0,
        "trend": 20.581222,
        "fair_value": 15.964078,
        "relative_strength": 0.757303,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 77.259769,
        "energy": 69.600193,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 21.969999,
        "volume": 167700,
        "typical_volume": 139540.0,
        "trend": 20.647178,
        "fair_value": 16.025315,
        "relative_strength": 0.789481,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 75.113802,
        "energy": 65.185176,
        "activity_lines": [
          21.833502,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 22.055,
        "volume": 216700,
        "typical_volume": 143230.0,
        "trend": 20.750632,
        "fair_value": 16.08841,
        "relative_strength": 1.586042,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 75.914733,
        "energy": 66.9459,
        "activity_lines": [
          21.918333,
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          21.497953,
          21.190206
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 22.23,
        "volume": 168700,
        "typical_volume": 141745.0,
        "trend": 20.850309,
        "fair_value": 16.152377,
        "relative_strength": -0.854937,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.875262,
        "energy": 76.549693,
        "activity_lines": [
          22.049333,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}