{ "ticker": { "uuid": "733783a7-e38d-42b6-b1db-c4bc6cc56dba", "symbol": "SAWG", "name": "AAM SAWGRASS US LARGE CAP QUALITY GROWTH ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.143, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.891, "architecture_energy": 59.051, "architecture_maturity": 52.73, "architecture_confidence": 76.552, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.32, "rotation_up": 55.32, "upward_expansion": 82.49, "deceleration": 64.14, "rotation_down": 27.14, "downward_expansion": 9.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.28794, 24.14694, 23.875186, 23.369064 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 24.8005, "trend_reference": 22.816703, "distance_from_trend": 0.086945, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.992884, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.181376, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.222328, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.131306, "excess_performance": 0.005682, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086945, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027756, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.181376, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033311, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.012223, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00885, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.131306, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.90307, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1692, "relative_activity": 0.37575, "balance": 1.90307, "dry_up": 1.476682, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022069, "annualized_volatility": 0.150836, "from_high_reference": -0.00639, "from_low_reference": 0.236045 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.816703, "fair_value_reference": 20.992884, "structural_low": 20.0644, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.001067, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001362, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.002784, "worst_return": -0.000651, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004032, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017587, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0494, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035927, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-15", 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23.8526, "volume": 5465, "typical_volume": 4271.4, "trend": 22.67189, "fair_value": 20.926751, "relative_strength": -0.719301, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.128299, "energy": 54.123415, "activity_lines": [ 24.025753, 23.977827, 23.615679, 23.146201 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.0631, "volume": 3241, "typical_volume": 4431.3, "trend": 22.737337, "fair_value": 20.956621, "relative_strength": -0.860261, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.303453, "energy": 50.405756, "activity_lines": [ 24.050007, 23.996129, 23.717356, 23.235956 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.8005, "volume": 1692, "typical_volume": 4503.0, "trend": 22.816703, "fair_value": 20.992884, "relative_strength": -1.222328, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.890675, "energy": 59.051014, "activity_lines": [ 24.28794, 24.14694, 23.875186, 23.369064 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }