{ "ticker": { "uuid": "733e0b93-7ff0-495b-ac88-932719717214", "symbol": "PHE", "name": "PowerHouse Energy Group Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.174, "architecture_energy": 38.818, "architecture_maturity": 92.047, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.15, "rotation_up": 27.19, "upward_expansion": 17.53, "deceleration": 35.0, "rotation_down": 40.61, "downward_expansion": 67.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.002163, 0.002147, 0.002274, 0.002585 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.0022, "trend_reference": 0.003057, "distance_from_trend": -0.28034, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.006676, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.670444, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -50.502538, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.521739, "excess_performance": -0.572974, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.28034, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.215819, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.670444, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101212, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.505025, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086252, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.521739, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.446124, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21780328, "relative_activity": 0.378357, "balance": 0.446124, "dry_up": 0.378375, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.154545, "annualized_volatility": 0.881438, "from_high_reference": -0.685714, "from_low_reference": 0.222222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.003057, "fair_value_reference": 0.006676, "structural_low": 0.0018, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 48, "median_return": -0.041127, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.02808, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.607595, "worst_return": -0.459459, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.155094, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": -0.154303, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.956522, "worst_return": -0.607692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.414286, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.393388, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 2.623188, "worst_return": -0.557692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.257246, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04878, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.265306, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.264865, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088235, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": 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"close": 0.00205, "volume": 13208959, "typical_volume": 57678559.45, "trend": 0.003272, "fair_value": 0.006762, "relative_strength": -55.607216, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.952836, "energy": 46.92362, "activity_lines": [ 0.0021, 0.002137, 0.002412, 0.002781 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.00215, "volume": 36356049, "typical_volume": 58315171.65, "trend": 0.003202, "fair_value": 0.006736, "relative_strength": -53.221486, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.953822, "energy": 52.626594, "activity_lines": [ 0.002103, 0.002127, 0.002353, 0.002709 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.00221, "volume": 15780153, "typical_volume": 58795746.5, "trend": 0.003129, "fair_value": 0.006712, "relative_strength": -51.378228, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.286296, "energy": 43.910712, "activity_lines": [ 0.002133, 0.002135, 0.002309, 0.002645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0022, "volume": 21780328, "typical_volume": 57565613.45, "trend": 0.003057, "fair_value": 0.006676, "relative_strength": -50.502538, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.173694, "energy": 38.818178, "activity_lines": [ 0.002163, 0.002147, 0.002274, 0.002585 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }