{ "ticker": { "uuid": "733e9624-8b7c-457d-919b-60c8eec75a7e", "symbol": "SPENCERS", "name": "Spencer's Retail Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -27.307, "architecture_energy": 45.325, "architecture_maturity": 30.625, "architecture_confidence": 83.166, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.67, "rotation_up": 17.29, "upward_expansion": 25.21, "deceleration": 48.8, "rotation_down": 67.59, "downward_expansion": 52.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.172667, 34.32, 35.115524, 34.677462 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 32.439999, "trend_reference": 34.430667, "distance_from_trend": -0.057817, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 69.476218, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.533078, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.029456, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.160021, "excess_performance": -0.116312, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.057817, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073199, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.533078, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099444, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.200295, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084519, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.160021, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.48148, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 221070, "relative_activity": 0.559085, "balance": 0.48148, "dry_up": 0.537688, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078607, "annualized_volatility": 0.478114, "from_high_reference": -0.493125, "from_low_reference": 0.330599 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.430667, "fair_value_reference": 69.476218, "structural_low": 24.379999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.021573, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.032813, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.157512, "worst_return": -0.119048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.099773, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.096259, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.267101, "worst_return": -0.262774, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.218115, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.17463, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.247795, "worst_return": -0.327099, 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[ 35.565334, 36.036182, 35.60719, 35.092623 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.060001, "volume": 252598, "typical_volume": 454405.6, "trend": 34.942667, "fair_value": 69.859295, "relative_strength": -17.565281, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.648053, "energy": 17.149249, "activity_lines": [ 34.607334, 35.459455, 35.476857, 34.951871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.900002, "volume": 239520, "typical_volume": 437577.65, "trend": 34.650667, "fair_value": 69.665064, "relative_strength": -19.123361, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.058313, "energy": 25.734396, "activity_lines": [ 33.863334, 34.896546, 35.321762, 34.820086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.439999, "volume": 221070, "typical_volume": 395414.0, "trend": 34.430667, "fair_value": 69.476218, "relative_strength": -20.029456, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.306792, "energy": 45.325392, "activity_lines": [ 33.172667, 34.32, 35.115524, 34.677462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }