{ "ticker": { "uuid": "733f7a6d-9249-484c-ae1e-96e884fbd38f", "symbol": "ENAM", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy MSCI USA Min TE UCITS ETF Cap", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.983, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.767, "architecture_energy": 70.311, "architecture_maturity": 85.832, "architecture_confidence": 73.168, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.97, "rotation_up": 58.36, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.46, "rotation_down": 29.08, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.188667, 30.059, 29.594238, 28.901893 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 30.780001, "trend_reference": 28.0995, "distance_from_trend": 0.095393, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.086622, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.277888, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.240125, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.156273, "excess_performance": -0.014618, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095393, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039433, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.277888, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041081, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032401, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002859, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.156273, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.329918, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64797, "relative_activity": 2.007525, "balance": 4.329918, "dry_up": 1.072078, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016882, "annualized_volatility": 0.121959, "from_high_reference": -0.002431, "from_low_reference": 0.230954 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.0995, "fair_value_reference": 24.086622, "structural_low": 25.370001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.014698, "positive_rate": 0.594595, "directional_follow_through": 0.594595, "median_excess_return": -0.003915, "regime_survival": 0.810811, "best_return": 0.055764, "worst_return": -0.088301, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.046532, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": 0.007989, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.142578, "worst_return": -0.120228, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.071044, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.01386, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.22315, "worst_return": -0.101312, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.137118, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090596, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030675, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006905, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02151, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-02-06", 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29.597333, 29.415364, 28.468881, 27.962946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 30.040001, "volume": 5737, "typical_volume": 29543.7, "trend": 27.558, "fair_value": 23.715705, "relative_strength": -4.477188, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.546083, "energy": 70.315067, "activity_lines": [ 29.742667, 29.585909, 28.689405, 28.129581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 30.290001, "volume": 42134, "typical_volume": 28925.7, "trend": 27.671333, "fair_value": 23.792397, "relative_strength": -3.206546, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.122783, "energy": 71.965021, "activity_lines": [ 29.945001, 29.761, 28.915834, 28.305839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.27, "volume": 28500, "typical_volume": 30058.7, "trend": 27.784, "fair_value": 23.86809, "relative_strength": -1.819056, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.467087, "energy": 84.928938, "activity_lines": [ 30.099334, 29.888182, 29.122667, 28.473495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.959999, "volume": 30808, "typical_volume": 31077.9, "trend": 27.886334, "fair_value": 23.938205, "relative_strength": -2.578802, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.572822, "energy": 74.015937, "activity_lines": [ 30.091, 29.928636, 29.281738, 28.613882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.555, "volume": 14309, "typical_volume": 29586.75, "trend": 27.9845, "fair_value": 24.00775, "relative_strength": -4.423099, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.660132, "energy": 62.88492, "activity_lines": [ 29.936333, 29.883273, 29.387143, 28.721538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.780001, "volume": 64797, "typical_volume": 32277.05, "trend": 28.0995, "fair_value": 24.086622, "relative_strength": -3.240125, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.767357, "energy": 70.310823, "activity_lines": [ 30.188667, 30.059, 29.594238, 28.901893 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }