{ "ticker": { "uuid": "734eb050-ba39-42bd-b6b3-1d8686bae00e", "symbol": "MRX", "name": "Mister Spex SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.001, "architecture_energy": 20.552, "architecture_maturity": 33.183, "architecture_confidence": 61.277, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.93, "rotation_up": 20.39, "upward_expansion": 12.8, "deceleration": 62.52, "rotation_down": 34.21, "downward_expansion": 58.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.193, 1.191273, 1.215929, 1.234 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.195, "trend_reference": 1.2555, "distance_from_trend": -0.048188, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.110737, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.433847, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.019988, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.098113, "excess_performance": -0.162753, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.048188, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037808, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.433847, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015742, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1902, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095176, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.098113, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.051854, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10035, "relative_activity": 0.248724, "balance": 2.051854, "dry_up": 0.788561, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084969, "annualized_volatility": 0.263904, "from_high_reference": -0.41133, "from_low_reference": 0.076577 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.2555, "fair_value_reference": 2.110737, "structural_low": 1.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.007663, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.025092, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.129851, "worst_return": -0.305288, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.025157, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.061961, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.214286, "worst_return": -0.294872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.045802, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.169576, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.030303, "worst_return": -0.421053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020339, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.487719, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.214511, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108179, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101493, "active": 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1.184333, 1.196545, 1.230524, 1.246731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.2, "volume": 84207, "typical_volume": 43509.1, "trend": 1.262667, "fair_value": 2.142372, "relative_strength": -16.686437, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.961862, "energy": 26.327595, "activity_lines": [ 1.189667, 1.194545, 1.225762, 1.242495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.195, "volume": 10622, "typical_volume": 41240.0, "trend": 1.259, "fair_value": 2.125769, "relative_strength": -17.77052, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.675828, "energy": 21.338245, "activity_lines": [ 1.193, 1.192364, 1.220548, 1.238129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.195, "volume": 10035, "typical_volume": 40345.95, "trend": 1.2555, "fair_value": 2.110737, "relative_strength": -19.019988, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.000804, "energy": 20.55159, "activity_lines": [ 1.193, 1.191273, 1.215929, 1.234 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }