{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7356e15f-ccc8-4f7b-a1f3-6ade48e520b8", "symbol": "603767", "name": "Zhejiang Zomax Transmission Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.426, "architecture_energy": 50.014, "architecture_maturity": 41.622, "architecture_confidence": 89.438, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.4, "rotation_up": 19.42, "upward_expansion": 7.29, "deceleration": 56.43, "rotation_down": 56.46, "downward_expansion": 78.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.236, 14.542, 16.273381, 17.250473 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.95, "trend_reference": 18.758333, "distance_from_trend": -0.203021, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.599937, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.099394, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.104637, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.301075, "excess_performance": -0.257871, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.203021, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137336, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.099394, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.392016, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.321046, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.179144, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.301075, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.061225, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24604700, "relative_activity": 0.747059, "balance": 1.061225, "dry_up": 0.666692, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.150862, "annualized_volatility": 0.626482, "from_high_reference": -0.631955, "from_low_reference": 0.204674 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.758333, "fair_value_reference": 16.599937, "structural_low": 12.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.034069, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.024837, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.202899, "worst_return": -0.147486, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.008706, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.045112, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.720074, "worst_return": -0.200162, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.007293, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.065023, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.350584, "worst_return": -0.098086, "sufficient": false }, { 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059871, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.784868, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.18704, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00943, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003742, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"volume": 20682141, "typical_volume": 32002965.85, "trend": 19.363666, "fair_value": 16.585489, "relative_strength": -39.380943, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.077944, "energy": 60.082294, "activity_lines": [ 13.95, 14.943273, 16.832428, 17.830172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.49, "volume": 19147900, "typical_volume": 32333664.85, "trend": 19.061667, "fair_value": 16.596379, "relative_strength": -32.759162, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.176763, "energy": 54.654227, "activity_lines": [ 14.023333, 14.606, 16.519571, 17.515742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.95, "volume": 24604700, "typical_volume": 32935409.85, "trend": 18.758333, "fair_value": 16.599937, "relative_strength": -32.104637, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.426384, "energy": 50.01431, "activity_lines": [ 14.236, 14.542, 16.273381, 17.250473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }