{ "ticker": { "uuid": "73574a22-6705-479b-bbce-a383cedd9f0e", "symbol": "HMWA", "name": "HSBC MSCI World UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.706, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.289, "architecture_energy": 68.968, "architecture_maturity": 97.908, "architecture_confidence": 64.989, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.54, "rotation_up": 55.21, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.28, "rotation_down": 28.55, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.434666, 41.243, 40.619452, 39.777183 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 42.279999, "trend_reference": 38.793167, "distance_from_trend": 0.089883, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.818878, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.288283, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.186161, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.144094, "excess_performance": -0.026798, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089883, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041483, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.288283, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042388, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031862, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002124, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.144094, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.071244, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46888, "relative_activity": 0.820834, "balance": 2.071244, "dry_up": 0.985178, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017093, "annualized_volatility": 0.106743, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.239883 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.793167, "fair_value_reference": 32.818878, "structural_low": 35.235001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.019243, "positive_rate": 0.64, "directional_follow_through": 0.64, "median_excess_return": -0.018825, "regime_survival": 0.88, "best_return": 0.067618, "worst_return": -0.081627, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.060768, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.015639, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.099945, "worst_return": -0.140333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.09392, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.021996, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.140188, "worst_return": -0.036472, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.082303, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114457, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.127605, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020709, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028312, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.764935, "energy": 81.900019, "activity_lines": [ 41.119334, 40.824727, 39.77069, 39.029871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 41.035, "volume": 32866, "typical_volume": 58358.7, "trend": 38.342834, "fair_value": 32.514455, "relative_strength": -2.995515, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.848625, "energy": 68.662596, "activity_lines": [ 41.146667, 40.918091, 39.984262, 39.213409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.139999, "volume": 60784, "typical_volume": 60216.9, "trend": 38.493834, "fair_value": 32.611827, "relative_strength": -2.514045, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.564235, "energy": 64.88738, "activity_lines": [ 41.166, 40.998, 40.189976, 39.393871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.790001, "volume": 84565, "typical_volume": 58665.1, "trend": 38.634833, "fair_value": 32.709968, "relative_strength": -3.903132, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.309541, "energy": 60.309978, "activity_lines": [ 41.058, 40.989, 40.343452, 39.542011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.279999, "volume": 46888, "typical_volume": 57122.4, "trend": 38.793167, "fair_value": 32.818878, "relative_strength": -3.186161, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.289381, "energy": 68.968185, "activity_lines": [ 41.434666, 41.243, 40.619452, 39.777183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }