{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7362665c-14b2-4f05-a306-5966b6375e75", "symbol": "688311", "name": "Chengdu M&S Electronics Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.336, "architecture_energy": 75.333, "architecture_maturity": 42.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.145, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.38, "rotation_up": 12.72, "upward_expansion": 17.39, "deceleration": 38.72, "rotation_down": 67.8, "downward_expansion": 88.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.488666, 25.348545, 28.031619, 31.087914 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.48, "trend_reference": 35.807333, "distance_from_trend": -0.316341, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 34.487381, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.290175, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.389071, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.441606, "excess_performance": -0.398402, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.316341, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091354, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.290175, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.321692, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.323891, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191742, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.441606, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.155849, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26495093, "relative_activity": 1.193808, "balance": 1.155849, "dry_up": 1.224794, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.172951, "annualized_volatility": 0.727761, "from_high_reference": -0.59604, "from_low_reference": 0.207696 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.807333, "fair_value_reference": 34.487381, "structural_low": 20.27, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.011468, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.002927, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.497664, "worst_return": -0.202276, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.080445, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.137743, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.931454, "worst_return": -0.28498, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.040376, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.106038, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.296742, "worst_return": -0.365896, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -40.705289, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.741152, "energy": 56.443214, "activity_lines": [ 25.934, 26.959454, 29.758381, 32.911634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.18, "volume": 18763768, "typical_volume": 21884668.4, "trend": 36.511333, "fair_value": 34.587234, "relative_strength": -40.384597, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.193222, "energy": 64.266839, "activity_lines": [ 24.031333, 25.755636, 28.690666, 31.864129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.48, "volume": 26495093, "typical_volume": 22193759.75, "trend": 35.807333, "fair_value": 34.487381, "relative_strength": -32.389071, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.336133, "energy": 75.332683, "activity_lines": [ 23.488666, 25.348545, 28.031619, 31.087914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }