{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7362bdeb-170f-4d38-9862-1eeecaac95a4", "symbol": "FWONK", "name": "Liberty Media Corporation Series C Liberty Formula One Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 58.145, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.433, "architecture_energy": 66.161, "architecture_maturity": 19.102, "architecture_confidence": 70.603, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.12, "rotation_up": 69.46, "upward_expansion": 86.21, "deceleration": 47.75, "rotation_down": 12.39, "downward_expansion": 12.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 99.896667, 97.804545, 94.580381, 92.491215 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 102.85, "trend_reference": 90.316167, "distance_from_trend": 0.138777, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 84.053301, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.223628, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.442086, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.206452, "excess_performance": 0.018998, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.138777, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001662, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.223628, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075825, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044421, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136153, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.206452, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.798022, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12047991, "relative_activity": 1.257318, "balance": 1.798022, "dry_up": 1.070031, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059957, "annualized_volatility": 0.287498, "from_high_reference": -0.059551, "from_low_reference": 0.283219 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 90.316167, "fair_value_reference": 84.053301, "structural_low": 80.15, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.009833, "positive_rate": 0.558824, "directional_follow_through": 0.558824, "median_excess_return": -0.017997, "regime_survival": 0.735294, "best_return": 0.11952, "worst_return": -0.154352, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.018037, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.022438, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.236208, "worst_return": -0.126168, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.036331, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.047179, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.286416, "worst_return": -0.161881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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12.958144, "activity_lines": [ 90.455333, 90.132182, 89.105667, 88.855688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 98.5, "volume": 9306606, "typical_volume": 10076811.4, "trend": 89.650833, "fair_value": 83.195499, "relative_strength": -9.424989, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.931743, "energy": 49.077704, "activity_lines": [ 93.266667, 91.688182, 90.084762, 89.440151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 96.13, "volume": 8992267, "typical_volume": 10228708.8, "trend": 89.7295, "fair_value": 83.345224, "relative_strength": -12.575547, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.343183, "energy": 62.870663, "activity_lines": [ 94.774, 92.633273, 90.776476, 89.858161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 102.2, "volume": 11948424, "typical_volume": 10028587.95, "trend": 89.896833, "fair_value": 83.53266, "relative_strength": -2.550576, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.586779, "energy": 77.148011, "activity_lines": [ 97.741333, 94.533091, 92.018238, 90.66271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 97.05, "volume": 7097021, "typical_volume": 9674956.75, "trend": 89.894167, "fair_value": 83.689968, "relative_strength": -5.47617, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.532286, "energy": 70.000709, "activity_lines": [ 98.107333, 95.355636, 92.719, 91.124204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 98.13, "volume": 9919997, "typical_volume": 9502032.8, "trend": 89.897167, "fair_value": 83.843814, "relative_strength": -4.497975, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.907366, "energy": 61.367192, "activity_lines": [ 98.414, 96.238, 93.459381, 91.655548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 102.85, "volume": 12047991, "typical_volume": 9582295.75, "trend": 90.316167, "fair_value": 84.053301, "relative_strength": -4.442086, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.433038, "energy": 66.161448, "activity_lines": [ 99.896667, 97.804545, 94.580381, 92.491215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }