{ "ticker": { "uuid": "73635454-ab5c-42be-bbc8-20bd79b305f5", "symbol": "BTLG11", "name": "BTG Pactual Log\u00edstica Fundo de Investimento Imobili\u00e1rio", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 93.928, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.966, "architecture_energy": 33.569, "architecture_maturity": 14.538, "architecture_confidence": 59.753, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.51, "rotation_up": 19.98, "upward_expansion": 22.66, "deceleration": 50.74, "rotation_down": 54.16, "downward_expansion": 45.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 101.072201, 101.355439, 101.695415, 101.688852 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 100.730003, "trend_reference": 101.412199, "distance_from_trend": -0.006727, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 89.424611, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.126424, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.738874, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.011062, "excess_performance": 0.06811, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006727, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009366, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.126424, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04224, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.027389, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080995, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.011062, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.525883, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 707017, "relative_activity": 1.588863, "balance": 0.525883, "dry_up": 1.513129, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01044, "annualized_volatility": 0.043179, "from_high_reference": -0.02552, "from_low_reference": 0.110462 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 101.412199, "fair_value_reference": 89.424611, "structural_low": 99.259613, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.001192, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.012919, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.050695, "worst_return": -0.07791, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.014127, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.010515, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.139284, "worst_return": -0.03548, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.019146, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.033927, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.105065, "worst_return": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 102.529999, "volume": 473152, "typical_volume": 430239.75, "trend": 101.268485, "fair_value": 89.033978, "relative_strength": -2.685878, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.435238, "energy": 13.203277, "activity_lines": [ 101.965937, 101.974152, 102.037811, 101.791882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 100.82, "volume": 715871, "typical_volume": 432944.6, "trend": 101.326479, "fair_value": 89.156673, "relative_strength": -4.152676, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.588425, "energy": 6.816003, "activity_lines": [ 101.615874, 101.750937, 101.923118, 101.762948 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 100.81, "volume": 797227, "typical_volume": 440557.55, "trend": 101.362014, "fair_value": 89.285881, "relative_strength": -5.925416, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.406414, "energy": 23.989354, "activity_lines": [ 101.336541, 101.543409, 101.811177, 101.729627 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 100.730003, "volume": 707017, "typical_volume": 444982.9, "trend": 101.412199, "fair_value": 89.424611, "relative_strength": -2.738874, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.966027, "energy": 33.569449, "activity_lines": [ 101.072201, 101.355439, 101.695415, 101.688852 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }