{ "ticker": { "uuid": "73644c1e-4602-4408-9b54-521127fec007", "symbol": "MSTY", "name": "Harvest Strategy Inc. High Income Shares ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.77, "architecture_energy": 57.08, "architecture_maturity": 36.876, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.82, "rotation_up": 23.89, "upward_expansion": 9.86, "deceleration": 53.16, "rotation_down": 59.37, "downward_expansion": 85.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.13884, 2.181067, 2.610876, 2.808201 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.23, "trend_reference": 3.037173, "distance_from_trend": -0.265765, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.248962, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.643141, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -55.867221, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.282088, "excess_performance": -0.402509, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.265765, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170545, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.643141, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.214385, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.558672, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110442, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.282088, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.21614, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 144200, "relative_activity": 0.621471, "balance": 0.21614, "dry_up": 0.796233, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.166038, "annualized_volatility": 0.754145, "from_high_reference": -0.774532, "from_low_reference": 0.20617 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.037173, "fair_value_reference": 6.248962, "structural_low": 1.848827, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.122379, "volume": 287300, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.093568, "volume": 160100, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.074361, "volume": 239300, "typical_volume": 247340.0, "trend": 3.130525, "fair_value": 6.351061, "relative_strength": -60.790541, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.760437, "energy": 79.541577, "activity_lines": [ 2.100582, 2.294769, 2.7676, 2.929724 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.1, "volume": 195400, "typical_volume": 237525.0, "trend": 3.083081, "fair_value": 6.298578, "relative_strength": -58.681939, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.942069, "energy": 70.218403, "activity_lines": [ 2.105956, 2.213167, 2.680201, 2.863238 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.23, "volume": 144200, "typical_volume": 232030.0, "trend": 3.037173, "fair_value": 6.248962, "relative_strength": -55.867221, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.770483, "energy": 57.080299, "activity_lines": [ 2.13884, 2.181067, 2.610876, 2.808201 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }