{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7368da00-8a1d-41ac-acb6-1ded5c8b3436", "symbol": "CTEC", "name": "Convatec Group PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 52.899, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 30.57, "architecture_energy": 31.685, "architecture_maturity": 9.903, "architecture_confidence": 67.445, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.42, "rotation_up": 58.74, "upward_expansion": 38.06, "deceleration": 29.21, "rotation_down": 15.4, "downward_expansion": 22.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 223.586667, 219.338182, 215.075124, 217.485911 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 232.4, "trend_reference": 221.590141, "distance_from_trend": 0.048783, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 238.718005, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.026466, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.43121, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.030311, "excess_performance": -0.020924, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048783, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032965, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.026466, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113601, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.064312, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.141988, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.030311, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.148732, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58003727, "relative_activity": 1.535315, "balance": 2.148732, "dry_up": 1.05441, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058711, "annualized_volatility": 0.316574, "from_high_reference": -0.103583, "from_low_reference": 0.188747 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 221.590141, "fair_value_reference": 238.718005, "structural_low": 195.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.008826, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": 0.012443, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.133069, "worst_return": -0.097621, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.105614, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.040871, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.129472, "worst_return": -0.090276, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.040914, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.014211, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.314968, "worst_return": -0.129628, "sufficient": true }, 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"gate": "down", "direction": -23.249963, "energy": 19.552598, "activity_lines": [ 216.04, 211.690909, 212.656274, 217.196606 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 216.0, "volume": 24258759, "typical_volume": 39430285.2, "trend": 222.567477, "fair_value": 238.661128, "relative_strength": -12.342736, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.464006, "energy": 15.641903, "activity_lines": [ 216.52, 213.021818, 212.578302, 216.72567 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 224.0, "volume": 50782976, "typical_volume": 38710025.4, "trend": 222.048791, "fair_value": 238.65944, "relative_strength": -9.83254, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.172626, "energy": 10.518917, "activity_lines": [ 219.066667, 215.661818, 213.394425, 216.818091 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 232.4, "volume": 58003727, "typical_volume": 37779682.9, "trend": 221.590141, "fair_value": 238.718005, "relative_strength": -6.43121, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.570134, "energy": 31.684747, "activity_lines": [ 223.586667, 219.338182, 215.075124, 217.485911 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }