{ "ticker": { "uuid": "736a19ab-c7bf-431a-9239-d3647ccbdd8d", "symbol": "CMRB", "name": "CMR, S.A.B. de C.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 68.68, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.304, "architecture_energy": 75.626, "architecture_maturity": 42.779, "architecture_confidence": 81.417, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 9.64, "upward_expansion": 17.36, "deceleration": 37.11, "rotation_down": 73.18, "downward_expansion": 90.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.382, 1.393636, 1.405952, 1.415462 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.38, "trend_reference": 1.429667, "distance_from_trend": -0.03474, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.667308, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.172318, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.474212, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.086093, "excess_performance": -0.031426, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.03474, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01651, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.172318, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021757, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084742, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075539, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.086093, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.010114, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5467, "relative_activity": 0.112761, "balance": 1.010114, "dry_up": 0.220191, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01728, "annualized_volatility": 0.100305, "from_high_reference": -0.206897, "from_low_reference": 0.014706 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.429667, "fair_value_reference": 1.667308, "structural_low": 1.36, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.019608, "positive_rate": 0.30303, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.044572, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.476636, "worst_return": -0.281879, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.027586, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.030211, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 1.386364, "worst_return": -0.310345, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.027586, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.086029, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.625, "worst_return": -0.450704, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.147287, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.30303, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060606, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.304348, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116022, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-03", 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1.416667, 1.417091, 1.422143, 1.430344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.38, "volume": 10619, "typical_volume": 58662.0, "trend": 1.439667, "fair_value": 1.694551, "relative_strength": -9.428387, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.42125, "energy": 56.429438, "activity_lines": [ 1.404667, 1.41, 1.417619, 1.426344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.39, "volume": 11222, "typical_volume": 54597.55, "trend": 1.438333, "fair_value": 1.686859, "relative_strength": -7.900581, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.27437, "energy": 62.395081, "activity_lines": [ 1.398667, 1.405636, 1.414381, 1.42314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.37, "volume": 15394, "typical_volume": 51340.65, "trend": 1.430667, "fair_value": 1.677692, "relative_strength": -9.484975, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.633599, "energy": 74.477569, "activity_lines": [ 1.387333, 1.398364, 1.409524, 1.418731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.38, "volume": 5467, "typical_volume": 48483.0, "trend": 1.429667, "fair_value": 1.667308, "relative_strength": -8.474212, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.303735, "energy": 75.626002, "activity_lines": [ 1.382, 1.393636, 1.405952, 1.415462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }