{ "ticker": { "uuid": "736d7c6a-2fe0-4c1c-b3c5-ebe25414ae6b", "symbol": "603123", "name": "Beijing Cuiwei Tower Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.654, "architecture_energy": 39.853, "architecture_maturity": 92.834, "architecture_confidence": 88.849, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.01, "rotation_up": 27.68, "upward_expansion": 18.98, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 38.99, "downward_expansion": 68.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.906667, 8.681455, 9.384095, 10.14929 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.56, "trend_reference": 11.219667, "distance_from_trend": -0.147925, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.111154, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.054509, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.667719, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.243072, "excess_performance": -0.199868, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.147925, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107993, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.054509, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.217253, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.196677, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047927, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.243072, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.190027, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 185877300, "relative_activity": 1.654441, "balance": 1.190027, "dry_up": 1.535101, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098809, "annualized_volatility": 0.482035, "from_high_reference": -0.457742, "from_low_reference": 0.26455 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.219667, "fair_value_reference": 10.111154, "structural_low": 7.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.028881, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.023809, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.49157, "worst_return": -0.187722, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.078496, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.073772, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 1.914063, "worst_return": -0.197564, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.143622, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.174867, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.965625, "worst_return": -0.206158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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10.14891, "relative_strength": -35.980404, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.474339, "energy": 90.186575, "activity_lines": [ 8.528667, 9.264727, 10.385048, 11.165312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.16, "volume": 69404856, "typical_volume": 123091680.15, "trend": 11.951667, "fair_value": 10.138782, "relative_strength": -35.031426, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.971291, "energy": 89.443793, "activity_lines": [ 8.320667, 8.942182, 10.090571, 10.914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.84, "volume": 66853181, "typical_volume": 118122072.5, "trend": 11.825333, "fair_value": 10.126603, "relative_strength": -32.763902, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.174414, "energy": 90.114534, "activity_lines": [ 8.098667, 8.624, 9.787571, 10.648731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.56, "volume": 233624365, "typical_volume": 113239164.0, "trend": 11.644667, "fair_value": 10.119551, "relative_strength": -26.786196, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.160675, "energy": 70.836185, "activity_lines": [ 8.202667, 8.509636, 9.581381, 10.438065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.07, "volume": 203522754, "typical_volume": 111635960.9, "trend": 11.461333, "fair_value": 10.114936, "relative_strength": -22.165494, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.443923, "energy": 58.118064, "activity_lines": [ 8.511333, 8.536727, 9.449667, 10.271957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.56, "volume": 185877300, "typical_volume": 112350500.45, "trend": 11.219667, "fair_value": 10.111154, "relative_strength": -19.667719, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.653897, "energy": 39.853214, "activity_lines": [ 8.906667, 8.681455, 9.384095, 10.14929 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }