{ "ticker": { "uuid": "73734c5e-2bc4-4502-b428-2c936dd907d1", "symbol": "KNF", "name": "Knife River Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.862, "architecture_energy": 62.129, "architecture_maturity": 27.928, "architecture_confidence": 81.005, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.72, "rotation_up": 9.45, "upward_expansion": 11.54, "deceleration": 38.82, "rotation_down": 73.25, "downward_expansion": 87.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 73.691333, 78.045091, 79.846667, 80.584516 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 66.8, "trend_reference": 80.881, "distance_from_trend": -0.174095, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 78.75109, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.151758, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.865148, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.165, "excess_performance": -0.290625, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.174095, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024588, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.151758, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.336939, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.238651, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.239722, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.165, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.602431, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7849882, "relative_activity": 2.731671, "balance": 0.602431, "dry_up": 1.223056, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139358, "annualized_volatility": 0.534026, "from_high_reference": -0.30619, "from_low_reference": 0.137602 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 80.881, "fair_value_reference": 78.75109, "structural_low": 65.78, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.028476, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.000901, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.258017, "worst_return": -0.160284, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.042383, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000767, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.148424, "worst_return": -0.139214, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.010272, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.0873, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.173972, "worst_return": -0.153428, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.070025, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.238058, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.070025, "worst_return": -0.070025, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.08878, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.079327, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002787, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051523, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", 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"price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }