{ "ticker": { "uuid": "737a66f8-cfff-482a-b708-637c1de5c3fd", "symbol": "PSCJ", "name": "PACER SWAN SOS CONSERVATIVE (JULY) ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.412, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 95.044, "architecture_energy": 76.626, "architecture_maturity": 84.55, "architecture_confidence": 69.835, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.26, "rotation_up": 63.83, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.64, "rotation_down": 28.34, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.87636, 31.76236, 31.563377, 31.24493 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 32.2766, "trend_reference": 30.87036, "distance_from_trend": 0.045553, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.878546, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.200831, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.137714, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.068408, "excess_performance": -0.057217, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045553, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019951, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.200831, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000772, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051377, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002809, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.068408, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.747052, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3335, "relative_activity": 1.955668, "balance": 1.747052, "dry_up": 1.217674, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00558, "annualized_volatility": 0.059848, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.121494 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.87036, "fair_value_reference": 26.878546, "structural_low": 29.158, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.010102, "positive_rate": 0.805556, "directional_follow_through": 0.805556, "median_excess_return": -0.004339, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.03888, "worst_return": -0.043567, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.031521, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.015303, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.075346, "worst_return": -0.039008, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.063016, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.036665, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.112106, "worst_return": 0.048655, "sufficient": 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"activity_lines": [ 31.6673, 31.585336, 31.251959, 30.967279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.6345, "volume": 3018, "typical_volume": 1728.95, "trend": 30.702753, "fair_value": 26.693308, "relative_strength": -3.731849, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.427177, "energy": 88.449447, "activity_lines": [ 31.67014, 31.60734, 31.324548, 31.030946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.5261, "volume": 956, "typical_volume": 1718.75, "trend": 30.748183, "fair_value": 26.751644, "relative_strength": -3.369297, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.737578, "energy": 86.072464, "activity_lines": [ 31.630547, 31.603189, 31.380503, 31.084065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.7688, "volume": 997, "typical_volume": 1690.8, "trend": 30.803807, "fair_value": 26.81334, "relative_strength": -3.520755, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.176026, "energy": 71.124667, "activity_lines": [ 31.676113, 31.639691, 31.45241, 31.149911 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.2766, "volume": 3335, "typical_volume": 1705.3, "trend": 30.87036, "fair_value": 26.878546, "relative_strength": -5.137714, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 95.044295, "energy": 76.625649, "activity_lines": [ 31.87636, 31.76236, 31.563377, 31.24493 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }