{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "737be191-fc95-47d7-80bf-d9993b4859c5",
    "symbol": "PAY",
    "name": "PayPoint plc",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing",
    "transition": "stage_1_building",
    "transition_label": "Base still building",
    "confidence": 73.724,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 53.043,
    "architecture_energy": 43.848,
    "architecture_maturity": 25.159,
    "architecture_confidence": 68.326,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 34.92,
        "rotation_up": 62.94,
        "upward_expansion": 82.96,
        "deceleration": 46.59,
        "rotation_down": 12.3,
        "downward_expansion": 7.3
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        609.033333,
        598.823449,
        593.461484,
        589.063629
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 600.5,
    "trend_reference": 577.687525,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.039489,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 656.826123,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.085755,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -9.234126,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.104044,
    "excess_performance": 0.052809,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.039489,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.047755,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.085755,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.017514,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.092341,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.063474,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.104044,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.837082,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 974855,
      "relative_activity": 1.408372,
      "balance": 0.837082,
      "dry_up": 1.374911,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.077436,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.267345,
      "from_high_reference": -0.286671,
      "from_low_reference": 0.370144
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 577.687525,
      "fair_value_reference": 656.826123,
      "structural_low": 522.921997,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.00089,
        "positive_rate": 0.555556,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.555556,
        "median_excess_return": -0.008592,
        "regime_survival": 0.555556,
        "best_return": 0.110204,
        "worst_return": -0.167705,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.071203,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.108634,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.120717,
        "worst_return": -0.223101,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.084573,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.136681,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.0777,
        "worst_return": -0.322551,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.1949,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.080757,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.280079,
        "worst_return": 0.10972,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-25",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.003792,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.130102,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.120827,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.122186,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.097633,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.018757,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.100728,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-08-01",
        "end": "2025-09-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.078279,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2025-10-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.13767,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-10-17",
        "end": "2025-11-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.133077,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-11-14",
        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.161271,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-03-20",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.185321,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2026-05-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.062561,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-05-29",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.040907,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 673410.9,
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        "fair_value": 656.552241,
        "relative_strength": -7.801726,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 617.0,
        "volume": 1501490,
        "typical_volume": 702006.7,
        "trend": 573.0183,
        "fair_value": 656.787706,
        "relative_strength": -7.388858,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
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        "direction": 57.509482,
        "energy": 49.116963,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 600.5,
        "volume": 974855,
        "typical_volume": 692185.55,
        "trend": 577.687525,
        "fair_value": 656.826123,
        "relative_strength": -9.234126,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
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        "direction": 53.043471,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}