{ "ticker": { "uuid": "737e239c-8991-48f4-9104-b2b603325a04", "symbol": "TCH-F151", "name": "Tachlit Index Sal Ltd. - Tachlit SAL (4A) S&P MidCap 400 Currency-Hedged", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.714, "architecture_energy": 64.254, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 69.81, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.86, "rotation_up": 27.95, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 53.18, "downward_expansion": 72.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.037333, 42.000909, 1086.537381, 1813.377742 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 42.49, "trend_reference": 2639.152667, "distance_from_trend": -0.9839, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3261.228077, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.986971, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.7701, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989046, "excess_performance": -1.017946, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.9839, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.315862, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.986971, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.18494, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.987701, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.831352, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989046, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.425695, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4941, "relative_activity": 0.600361, "balance": 0.425695, "dry_up": 0.798962, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 8.022304, "annualized_volatility": 6.37733, "from_high_reference": -0.989784, "from_low_reference": 0.032564 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2639.152667, "fair_value_reference": 3261.228077, "structural_low": 41.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.011486, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.006857, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.127097, "worst_return": -0.120957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.015833, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.017505, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.179896, "worst_return": -0.09739, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.075141, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.005722, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.231825, "worst_return": -0.092934, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.620029, "energy": 68.904934, "activity_lines": [ 41.843333, 261.916909, 1514.168238, 2172.669312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.9, "volume": 8923, "typical_volume": 8550.2, "trend": 2765.536333, "fair_value": 3280.141603, "relative_strength": -98.814549, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.171699, "energy": 68.173771, "activity_lines": [ 41.83, 116.131636, 1291.538762, 1989.058151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.49, "volume": 4941, "typical_volume": 8230.05, "trend": 2639.152667, "fair_value": 3261.228077, "relative_strength": -98.7701, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.713612, "energy": 64.254083, "activity_lines": [ 42.037333, 42.000909, 1086.537381, 1813.377742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }