{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7380595c-3aaa-49fc-931f-bf67b174e2ec", "symbol": "603096", "name": "Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.011, "architecture_energy": 43.886, "architecture_maturity": 88.643, "architecture_confidence": 63.006, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.2, "rotation_up": 25.22, "upward_expansion": 18.23, "deceleration": 66.94, "rotation_down": 45.58, "downward_expansion": 68.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.096667, 14.086, 14.949538, 15.688253 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.67, "trend_reference": 16.671749, "distance_from_trend": -0.120068, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.19232, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.146712, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.710271, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.231937, "excess_performance": -0.188733, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.120068, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070957, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.146712, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165978, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.147103, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048546, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.231937, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.483326, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9548834, "relative_activity": 1.354258, "balance": 0.483326, "dry_up": 1.174322, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077027, "annualized_volatility": 0.325993, "from_high_reference": -0.294033, "from_low_reference": 0.138975 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.671749, "fair_value_reference": 17.19232, "structural_low": 12.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.015025, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": -0.005842, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 0.253521, "worst_return": -0.168814, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0143, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.006516, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.459314, "worst_return": -0.259975, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.07281, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.068941, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.305985, "worst_return": -0.2124, "sufficient": true }, { 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-22.879179, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.616347, "energy": 72.537631, "activity_lines": [ 13.607333, 14.083241, 15.213086, 15.985017 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.36, "volume": 7296524, "typical_volume": 7055532.8, "trend": 16.763416, "fair_value": 17.215266, "relative_strength": -14.778942, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.651623, "energy": 57.487812, "activity_lines": [ 13.823333, 14.030297, 15.056455, 15.823312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.67, "volume": 9548834, "typical_volume": 7050972.1, "trend": 16.671749, "fair_value": 17.19232, "relative_strength": -14.710271, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.01125, "energy": 43.885549, "activity_lines": [ 14.096667, 14.086, 14.949538, 15.688253 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }