{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7386b92f-f587-4783-ac68-609f491ee403", "symbol": "BAH", "name": "Booz Allen Hamilton Holding", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.402, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.92, "architecture_energy": 18.669, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.572, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.62, "rotation_up": 33.81, "upward_expansion": 20.9, "deceleration": 44.14, "rotation_down": 23.46, "downward_expansion": 57.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 71.326667, 69.002871, 71.376158, 73.505772 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 76.05, "trend_reference": 77.237352, "distance_from_trend": -0.015373, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 113.302527, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.328788, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.695262, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.132676, "excess_performance": -0.258301, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015373, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064603, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.328788, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012247, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.196953, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073274, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.132676, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.297095, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8057657, "relative_activity": 0.850022, "balance": 1.297095, "dry_up": 1.22114, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090594, "annualized_volatility": 0.417298, "from_high_reference": -0.307497, "from_low_reference": 0.278151 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 77.237352, "fair_value_reference": 113.302527, "structural_low": 59.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.001278, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": 0.010424, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.186909, "worst_return": -0.20827, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.013449, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.024573, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.232547, "worst_return": -0.243032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.165945, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.228667, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.269416, "worst_return": -0.253213, "sufficient": true 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"trend": 77.237352, "fair_value": 113.302527, "relative_strength": -19.695262, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.920173, "energy": 18.669444, "activity_lines": [ 71.326667, 69.002871, 71.376158, 73.505772 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }