{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7393fdd2-4be7-4317-8f6e-6648128e05f5", "symbol": "URNM", "name": "Sprott Uranium Miners UCITS ETF Accumulating", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.737, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.216, "architecture_energy": 50.125, "architecture_maturity": 27.173, "architecture_confidence": 94.031, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.61, "rotation_up": 22.16, "upward_expansion": 7.62, "deceleration": 54.46, "rotation_down": 53.38, "downward_expansion": 78.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.5104, 10.605455, 11.105505, 11.522994 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.01, "trend_reference": 12.093733, "distance_from_trend": -0.089611, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.743793, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.12995, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.13295, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.104878, "excess_performance": -0.187761, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.089611, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01121, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.12995, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200926, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121329, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.292188, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.104878, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.694115, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29617, "relative_activity": 3.041587, "balance": 0.694115, "dry_up": 1.370342, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065842, "annualized_volatility": 0.350897, "from_high_reference": -0.291415, "from_low_reference": 0.364143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.093733, "fair_value_reference": 9.743793, "structural_low": 9.774, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.040053, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.018288, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.040053, "worst_return": 0.040053, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000225, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.180065, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.349144, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027646, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.147164, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102704, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034611, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040053, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-01-12", "close": 10.208, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-01-19", "close": 10.56, 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"2026-06-26", "close": 10.844, "volume": 1599, "typical_volume": 10366.85, "trend": 12.1476, "fair_value": 9.708884, "relative_strength": -11.025184, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.267263, "energy": 63.292447, "activity_lines": [ 11.1188, 11.420509, 11.944952, 12.16071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 10.878, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9790.35, "trend": 12.142533, "fair_value": 9.717877, "relative_strength": -12.400955, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.268025, "energy": 73.89544, "activity_lines": [ 11.0136, 11.248764, 11.808267, 12.0788 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.586, "volume": 15721, "typical_volume": 9858.9, "trend": 12.147867, "fair_value": 9.724504, "relative_strength": -13.746729, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.737608, "energy": 66.946006, "activity_lines": [ 10.855867, 11.071055, 11.653857, 11.978378 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.774, "volume": 5223, "typical_volume": 9659.15, "trend": 12.138333, "fair_value": 9.724879, "relative_strength": -20.859346, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.445928, "energy": 87.039093, "activity_lines": [ 10.472933, 10.787273, 11.437419, 11.825226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.4, "volume": 4342, "typical_volume": 9007.6, "trend": 12.137933, "fair_value": 9.729955, "relative_strength": -15.660925, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.227118, "energy": 75.469409, "activity_lines": [ 10.3636, 10.672327, 11.298362, 11.713075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.318, "volume": 14192, "typical_volume": 8477.7, "trend": 12.136333, "fair_value": 9.734343, "relative_strength": -16.470378, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.291546, "energy": 71.631239, "activity_lines": [ 10.304133, 10.565891, 11.1634, 11.59566 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.01, "volume": 29617, "typical_volume": 9737.35, "trend": 12.093733, "fair_value": 9.743793, "relative_strength": -12.13295, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.216207, "energy": 50.125113, "activity_lines": [ 10.5104, 10.605455, 11.105505, 11.522994 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }