{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7395395a-de62-4f37-9919-aa841455c735", "symbol": "MTG-B", "name": "Modern Times Group MTG AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 72.949, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.343, "architecture_energy": 31.292, "architecture_maturity": 47.981, "architecture_confidence": 49.192, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.88, "rotation_up": 37.22, "upward_expansion": 63.16, "deceleration": 65.23, "rotation_down": 24.83, "downward_expansion": 15.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 125.533334, 124.41091, 124.441905, 118.401505 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 125.5, "trend_reference": 111.243333, "distance_from_trend": 0.128157, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 98.059295, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.279838, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.133696, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.340812, "excess_performance": 0.279318, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.128157, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031974, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.279838, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109179, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.001337, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088304, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.340812, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.667772, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 912064, "relative_activity": 0.916147, "balance": 0.667772, "dry_up": 0.867342, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062029, "annualized_volatility": 0.334134, "from_high_reference": -0.116197, "from_low_reference": 0.513872 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 111.243333, "fair_value_reference": 98.059295, "structural_low": 82.900002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.027613, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.266667, "median_excess_return": -0.067629, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.070845, "worst_return": -0.247989, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.092007, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.088644, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.093492, "worst_return": -0.215869, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.047591, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.088163, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.154255, "worst_return": -0.253092, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003992, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.194638, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033634, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05625, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038121, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": 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"gate": "up", "direction": 36.80573, "energy": 25.961335, "activity_lines": [ 122.886667, 125.774545, 120.727381, 114.585591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 118.099998, "volume": 570743, "typical_volume": 1141363.65, "trend": 109.576666, "fair_value": 96.957692, "relative_strength": -1.056201, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.372507, "energy": 22.9241, "activity_lines": [ 121.239999, 123.938181, 121.270476, 115.147312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 124.599998, "volume": 898282, "typical_volume": 1057701.45, "trend": 110.006666, "fair_value": 97.317628, "relative_strength": 2.644885, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.404449, "energy": 24.633804, "activity_lines": [ 122.306665, 123.490908, 122.29238, 116.116559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 130.600006, "volume": 1072818, "typical_volume": 1029275.85, "trend": 110.676666, "fair_value": 97.707372, "relative_strength": 5.975677, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.234776, "energy": 40.093089, "activity_lines": [ 125.093334, 124.354546, 123.713571, 117.445161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 125.5, "volume": 912064, "typical_volume": 995543.0, "trend": 111.243333, "fair_value": 98.059295, "relative_strength": -0.133696, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.342696, "energy": 31.292092, "activity_lines": [ 125.533334, 124.41091, 124.441905, 118.401505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }