{ "ticker": { "uuid": "739e648e-ad2b-425d-8951-ebb4db3ed6c4", "symbol": "BCAT", "name": "BlackRock Capital Allocation Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.574, "architecture_energy": 51.176, "architecture_maturity": 80.54, "architecture_confidence": 65.486, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.53, "rotation_up": 47.97, "upward_expansion": 78.69, "deceleration": 71.17, "rotation_down": 27.78, "downward_expansion": 7.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.727553, 15.652878, 15.431434, 15.090108 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.04, "trend_reference": 14.634997, "distance_from_trend": 0.096003, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.621958, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.380146, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.807938, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.177772, "excess_performance": 0.052147, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.096003, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069161, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.380146, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022794, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.038079, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006364, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.177772, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.365911, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3054998, "relative_activity": 0.933728, "balance": 1.365911, "dry_up": 1.208562, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028206, "annualized_volatility": 0.132876, "from_high_reference": -0.003727, "from_low_reference": 0.320621 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.634997, "fair_value_reference": 11.621958, "structural_low": 13.128772, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.017953, "positive_rate": 0.735294, "directional_follow_through": 0.735294, "median_excess_return": -0.004132, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.085802, "worst_return": -0.061286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.029839, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.00457, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.117626, "worst_return": -0.019854, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.084273, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.049191, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.222645, "worst_return": 0.051602, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": 4.303336, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.465581, "energy": 54.484113, "activity_lines": [ 15.594919, 15.546893, 15.1931, 14.846363 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.31, "volume": 2759891, "typical_volume": 3372175.95, "trend": 14.439687, "fair_value": 11.532812, "relative_strength": 3.918638, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.953834, "energy": 41.885876, "activity_lines": [ 15.499065, 15.515604, 15.241933, 14.907815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.76, "volume": 3270844, "typical_volume": 3303638.95, "trend": 14.53478, "fair_value": 11.576093, "relative_strength": 5.684897, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.443122, "energy": 47.641746, "activity_lines": [ 15.57304, 15.563247, 15.327769, 14.992997 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.04, "volume": 3054998, "typical_volume": 3271827.0, "trend": 14.634997, "fair_value": 11.621958, "relative_strength": 3.807938, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.57414, "energy": 51.176229, "activity_lines": [ 15.727553, 15.652878, 15.431434, 15.090108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }