{ "ticker": { "uuid": "73a26fcb-e752-40a8-b980-fe6faa0b27be", "symbol": "PRM", "name": "Perimeter Solutions SA", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.162, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.91, "architecture_energy": 22.328, "architecture_maturity": 54.873, "architecture_confidence": 92.522, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.84, "rotation_up": 28.99, "upward_expansion": 54.68, "deceleration": 90.47, "rotation_down": 28.06, "downward_expansion": 20.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.539333, 33.935091, 33.120429, 31.358366 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 35.26, "trend_reference": 29.441, "distance_from_trend": 0.19765, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.240192, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.313619, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 16.013441, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.308834, "excess_performance": 0.18321, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.19765, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079506, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.313619, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143177, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.160134, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109501, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.308834, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.99233, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10028537, "relative_activity": 1.358897, "balance": 0.99233, "dry_up": 1.214721, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119075, "annualized_volatility": 0.566189, "from_high_reference": -0.076238, "from_low_reference": 1.003227 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.441, "fair_value_reference": 15.240192, "structural_low": 20.38, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.026688, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.008609, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.087548, "worst_return": -0.1536, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.042224, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.053073, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.179287, "worst_return": -0.263736, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.156772, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.097966, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.308834, "worst_return": 0.00471, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.248823, 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"2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.113422, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.289588, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028986, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.202344, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.612207, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.15516, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": 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"gate": "up", "direction": 57.819602, "energy": 48.96262, "activity_lines": [ 34.767333, 34.043818, 31.817333, 30.203806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.42, "volume": 7025334, "typical_volume": 6857996.25, "trend": 28.962, "fair_value": 14.713333, "relative_strength": 20.859521, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.188022, "energy": 38.11476, "activity_lines": [ 34.514667, 34.221455, 32.302952, 30.569075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.73, "volume": 5910808, "typical_volume": 6777899.6, "trend": 29.150333, "fair_value": 14.894295, "relative_strength": 18.016563, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.70955, "energy": 30.148872, "activity_lines": [ 34.102, 34.225455, 32.670762, 30.876688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.61, "volume": 12893455, "typical_volume": 7182145.2, "trend": 29.253667, "fair_value": 15.052115, "relative_strength": 5.126508, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.200972, "energy": 17.674634, "activity_lines": [ 32.919333, 33.653091, 32.692857, 30.97086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.26, "volume": 10028537, "typical_volume": 7379910.4, "trend": 29.441, "fair_value": 15.240192, "relative_strength": 16.013441, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.909515, "energy": 22.328459, "activity_lines": [ 33.539333, 33.935091, 33.120429, 31.358366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }