{ "ticker": { "uuid": "73a4e604-dacd-4ea5-ab80-51c1887507ae", "symbol": "TYX", "name": "Tyranna Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.324, "architecture_energy": 36.943, "architecture_maturity": 24.116, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.04, "rotation_up": 20.71, "upward_expansion": 6.1, "deceleration": 44.77, "rotation_down": 40.65, "downward_expansion": 72.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.002933, 0.002936, 0.003083, 0.00319 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.003, "trend_reference": 0.003333, "distance_from_trend": -0.1, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.007003, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.571625, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.737845, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.25, "excess_performance": -0.313706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.1, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115044, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.571625, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038691, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.237378, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.251962, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.227936, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 678454, "relative_activity": 0.094517, "balance": 0.227936, "dry_up": 1.388069, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.141026, "annualized_volatility": 0.919254, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 0.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.003333, "fair_value_reference": 0.007003, "structural_low": 0.0025, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.361111, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.008404, "regime_survival": 0.805556, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.3, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.039231, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.041012, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 2.166667, "worst_return": -0.4375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.016049, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 4.666667, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"relative_strength": -19.989853, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.861432, "energy": 40.513317, "activity_lines": [ 0.002867, 0.002927, 0.003117, 0.00324 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.003, "volume": 11443119, "typical_volume": 7666944.0, "trend": 0.003367, "fair_value": 0.007122, "relative_strength": -21.361124, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.630529, "energy": 35.151928, "activity_lines": [ 0.0029, 0.002927, 0.0031, 0.003214 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.003, "volume": 678454, "typical_volume": 7178116.6, "trend": 0.003333, "fair_value": 0.007003, "relative_strength": -23.737845, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.324497, "energy": 36.943321, "activity_lines": [ 0.002933, 0.002936, 0.003083, 0.00319 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }