{ "ticker": { "uuid": "73a55043-b30b-4d07-8a11-2c365c061b05", "symbol": "AMRQ", "name": "Amaroq Ltd.", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 58.329, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 17.062, "architecture_energy": 31.382, "architecture_maturity": 31.913, "architecture_confidence": 55.164, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.84, "rotation_up": 49.65, "upward_expansion": 34.71, "deceleration": 47.04, "rotation_down": 14.04, "downward_expansion": 43.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.997667, 0.942636, 0.940238, 0.96386 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.06, "trend_reference": 1.022033, "distance_from_trend": 0.037148, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.82399, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.286423, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.997434, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.131148, "excess_performance": -0.182383, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037148, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017795, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.286423, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030222, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.029974, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030029, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.131148, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.771008, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2572360, "relative_activity": 0.757062, "balance": 0.771008, "dry_up": 1.174687, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065007, "annualized_volatility": 0.426987, "from_high_reference": -0.316129, "from_low_reference": 0.766667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.022033, "fair_value_reference": 0.82399, "structural_low": 0.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.065574, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.073942, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.012048, "worst_return": -0.116505, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.027606, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.078421, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.442623, "worst_return": -0.202381, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.14881, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.058601, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.377049, "worst_return": 0.024096, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.171053, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059524, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.019108, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005405, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.311828, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"trend": 1.026233, "fair_value": 0.816183, "relative_strength": -5.238405, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.999185, "energy": 33.130524, "activity_lines": [ 0.891, 0.885127, 0.917819, 0.959794 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.055, "volume": 5331856, "typical_volume": 3414987.1, "trend": 1.025733, "fair_value": 0.820048, "relative_strength": 3.110231, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.26435, "energy": 14.124567, "activity_lines": [ 0.951, 0.9142, 0.928886, 0.961649 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.06, "volume": 2572360, "typical_volume": 3397817.8, "trend": 1.022033, "fair_value": 0.82399, "relative_strength": 2.997434, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 17.062214, "energy": 31.381836, "activity_lines": [ 0.997667, 0.942636, 0.940238, 0.96386 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }